Estimating the ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China: implications for management of the global outbreak

Lytras, Theodore; Panagiotakopoulos, Georgios; Tsiodras, Sotirios

doi:10.1101/2020.03.24.20042218

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Moreover, for achieving the so-called temporary herd immunity, the minimum level of population immunity to halt the spread of infection in the community would be 1-(1/R 0 ) (10). Where, R 0 is the number of secondary cases generated by an infected individual in an ongoing epidemic and estimated to be 2 for Iran (11). Therefore, the information about the percentage of previously infected and hence immune people can help us to identify herd immunity, project epidemic and decide about public policy guidelines.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 virus infection in Guilan province, Iran

Shakiba

Nazari

Mehrabian

et al. 2020

Preprint

116

138

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The extent of infection by coronavirus disease 2019 has not been well known. In this study we aimed to determine seropositivity of COVID-19 virus infection in population of a highly affected area in north of Iran. Methods:In a population-based cluster random sampling design through phone call invitation, a total of 196 household including 551 subjects agreed to participate in this study. Each participant were taken 50ml blood sample at health care center. Rapid test kits were used to detect antibody against COVID-19. Crude, population-weight adjusted and test performance adjusted prevalence of antibody seropositivity to SARS-CoV-2 were reported. Results:The prevalence of antibody seropositivity was 22% (95%CI: 19-26%). The population weight adjusted estimate was 21% (95%CI: 14-29%) and test performance adjusted prevalence was 33% (95%CI: 28-39%). Based on these estimates the range of infected people in this province would be between 518000 and 777000. Conclusion:The population seropositivity prevalence of COVID-19 virus infection indicated that the asymptomatic infection is much higher than the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. This estimate can be used to better detect infection fatality rate and decide for public policy guidelines.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 virus infection in Guilan province, Iran

Shakiba

Nazari

Mehrabian

et al. 2020

Preprint

116

138

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Our results suggest that the ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection might be much lower than previously assumed, with a correspondingly lower Infection Fatality Rate. 4 At the same time, the extent of asymptomatic transmission is likely to make mitigation challenging without wide-ranging social distancing measures. Better epidemiological data must be urgently collected, including repeated seroprevalence surveys, to guide further management of this pandemic.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in repatriation flights to Greece from three European countries

Lytras

Dellis

Flountzi

et al. 2020

Journal of Travel Medicine

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, the user can define the percent of SARS-CoV-2 cases that have actually been diagnosed. The 'percent diagnosed' has been the focus of intense research with highly conflicting predictions [77][78][79][80][81][82] . To date, there is no reliable estimate of this parameter, which is likely influenced by changes in testing strategies and variations in testing capacities over time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVIDStrategyCalculator: A software to assess testing- and quarantine strategies for incoming travelers, contact person management and de-isolation

Toorn

Bourquain

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In early 2020 COVID-19 turned into a global pandemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including the isolation of infected individuals, tracing and quarantine of exposed individuals are decisive tools to prevent onwards transmission and curb fatalities. Strategies that combine NPIs with SARS-CoV-2 testing may help to shorten quarantine durations while being non-inferior with respect to infection prevention. Thus, combined strategies can help reducing the socio-economic burden of SARS-CoV-2 and increase public acceptance.We developed a software that enables policy makers to calculate the reduction in transmissibility through quarantine or isolation in combination with arbitrary testing strategies. The user chooses between three different modi [(i) isolation of infected individuals, (ii) management of potentially infected contacts and (iii) quarantine of incoming travelers], while having flexibility in customizing testing strategies and model parameters. The software enables decision makers to tailor calculations specifically to their questions and perform an assessment ‘on the fly’, based on current evidence on infection dynamics.Underneath, we analytically solve a stochastic transit compartment model of the infection time course, which captures temporal changes in test sensitivities, incubation- and infectious periods, as well as times to symptom onset using its default parameters.Using default parameters, we estimated that testing travelers at the point of entry reduces the risk about 4.69 (4.19,4.83) fold for PCR vs. 3.59 (3.22, 3.69) fold for rapid diagnostic tests (RDT, 87% relative sensitivity) when combined with symptom screening. In comparison to 14 days of pure quarantine, 8 (PCR) vs. 10 (RDT) days of pre-test quarantine would be noninferior for incoming travelers as well as for contact person management. De-isolation of infected individuals 11 days after symptom onset reduces the risk by >99fold (7.68,>1012). This tool is freely available from: https://github.com/CovidStrategyCalculator/CovidStrategyCalculator

show abstract

Estimating the ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China: implications for management of the global outbreak

Cited by 9 publications

References 15 publications

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 virus infection in Guilan province, Iran

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 virus infection in Guilan province, Iran

High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in repatriation flights to Greece from three European countries

COVIDStrategyCalculator: A software to assess testing- and quarantine strategies for incoming travelers, contact person management and de-isolation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About