2022
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-13723-y
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Estimating the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany via spline-based hierarchical modelling of death counts

Abstract: We consider a retrospective modelling approach for estimating effective reproduction numbers based on death counts during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model incorporates splines to estimate reproduction numbers flexibly over time while adjusting for varying effective infection fatality rates. The approach also provides estimates of dark figures regarding undetected infections. Results for Germany illustrate that our estimates based on death counts are o… Show more

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