2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.yrtph.2017.06.009
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Estimating the effect of differing assumptions on the population health impact of introducing a Reduced Risk Tobacco Product in the USA

Abstract: We use Population Health Impact Modelling to assess effects on tobacco prevalence and mortality of introducing a Reduced Risk Tobacco Product (RRP). Simulated samples start in 1990 with a US-representative smoking prevalence. Individual tobacco histories are updated annually until 2010 using estimated probabilities of switching between never/current/former smoking where the RRP is not introduced, with current users subdivided into cigarette/RRP/dual users where it is. RRP-related mortality reductions from lung… Show more

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Cited by 41 publications
(88 citation statements)
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“…The closeness of the null scenario predictions to actual epidemiological and authoritative statistics from the U.S. population across the 20-year study period provides a solid basis for assessing the potential population benefit of a cMRTP [Lee et al 2017]. As shown in that paper, the introduction of a cMRTP would result in fewer SADs in all but the most unlikely situations.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 68%
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“…The closeness of the null scenario predictions to actual epidemiological and authoritative statistics from the U.S. population across the 20-year study period provides a solid basis for assessing the potential population benefit of a cMRTP [Lee et al 2017]. As shown in that paper, the introduction of a cMRTP would result in fewer SADs in all but the most unlikely situations.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 68%
“…Separately for the null and alternative scenarios, the PHIM then derives estimates of the relative risk (compared to never users) for lung cancer, COPD, ischemic heart disease, and stroke for every individual of each sex at each year of follow up. The estimation uses a negative exponential model that has been described elsewhere [Lee et al 2017]. It requires not only knowledge of each individual's tobacco use at each year but also estimates of the "effective dose" corresponding to the tobacco use pattern.…”
Section: Estimating Relative Risksmentioning
confidence: 99%
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