Estimating the Force of Infection with <i>Helicobacter pylori</i> in Japan

Kayano, Taishi; Lee, Ki-Doek; Nishiura, Hiroshi

doi:10.1155/2019/1451490

Cited by 6 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Further projections of this trend for 2050 anticipate a further decline in the prevalence of H pylori and the incidence of gastric cancer. 17 Health professionals, in particular those working in gastrointestinal units, were found to have a higher risk; however, most of the studies date back two decades.…”

Section: Changing Prevalencementioning

confidence: 99%

Review: Epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori infection

et al. 2019

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This review summarizes recent publications on the epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori. Two major systemic analyses, from Malaysia and Ethiopia, were published. The Brazilian Consensus Conference has stated that H pylori infection is an infectious disease with an indication for antimicrobial therapy. A continuous decrease in H pylori prevalence was reported from many regions worldwide, including Korea, China, Iran, and Austria. A cross‐sectional H pylori prevalence study conducted in the United Arab Emirates found 41% prevalence in a group of healthy children and adults. Several studies from Asia addressed H pylori prevalence in adults undergoing regular checkup. The largest of such studies, performed in Korea, involved 24 471 subjects and reported 41.5% seroprevalence. A relatively smaller study from East China on 3252 subjects reported 27.5% prevalence. In contrast, a study from Spain reported 87.2% seroprevalence. A report on the association between smoking and H pylori seropositivity was published on behalf of the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project—a consortium of epidemiological studies of gastric cancer. Also, other potential risk factors, including occupational risk factors, water supply, and food were analyzed. Gastroesophageal reflux and sexual partners has been associated with a higher risk for H pylori acquisition, and gut microbiota was suggested to play a role in intrafamilial transmission of H pylori. Finally, in a few studies (from Mexico and Japan), the catalytic model for predicting the potential risk of acquiring H pylori infection in the future was used. As anticipated, a further decline in H pylori‐related disease was demonstrated by applying the modeling.

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Section: Changing Prevalencementioning

confidence: 99%

Review: Epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori infection

et al. 2019

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“…Second, risk factors other than smoking were not explicitly considered. Genetic predisposition and well-known carcinogenic exposures could be used to attain earlier diagnosis and improve prognosis [47,48]. In fact, the relative risk of smoking in causing lung cancer among Japanese is known as smaller than those in the United States and Europe, referred to as the smoking paradox [49].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Epidemiological Dynamics of Lung Cancer in Japan

Yamaguchi

Nishiura

2019

JCM

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While the prevalence of smoking has steadily declined over time, the absolute numbers of lung cancer cases and deaths have continued to increase in Japan. We employed a simple mathematical model that describes the relationship between demographic dynamics and smoking prevalence to predict future epidemiological trends of lung cancer by age and sex. Never-smokers, smokers, and ex-smokers were assumed to experience different hazard of lung cancer, and the model was parameterized using data from 2014 and before, as learning data, and a future forecast was obtained from 2015 onwards. The maximum numbers of lung cancer cases and deaths in men will be 76,978 (95% confidence interval (CI): 76,630–77,253) and 63,284 (95% CI: 62,991–63507) in 2024, while those in women will be 42,838 (95% CI: 42,601–43,095) and 32,267 (95% CI: 32,063–32,460) in 2035 and 2036, respectively. Afterwards, the absolute numbers of cases and deaths are predicted to decrease monotonically. Our compartmental modeling approach is well suited to predicting lung cancer in Japan with dynamic ageing and drastic decline in smoking prevalence. The predicted burden is useful for anticipating demands for diagnosis, treatment, and care in the healthcare sector.

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“…[18,[20][21][22]24] Despite such differences, our earlier study has shown that the observed antibody data over age and time, as extracted from all included studies, were well captured by a simple integral equation model and heterogeneity did not matter. [25] Using the collected dataset and estimating the hazard of infection [25], the best-fit model did not identify any age dependence in the hazard of infection, and estimated that the hazard of infection decreased over time beginning in the year 1937; the exponential decay in the hazard was 0.047 per year. [25] We used these published estimates and adopted the resulting prevalence of infection with H. pylori as a function of time and age.…”

Section: Epidemiological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Dramatic shift in the epidemiology of peptic ulcer in Japan: the impact of Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy

2021

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Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy was included with insurance coverage from 1999 onwards in Japan, with the incidence of peptic ulcer expected to decrease as a consequence. This study investigated the temporal dynamics of peptic ulcer in Japan, and identified underlying contributory factors using mathematical models. We investigated the seroprevalence of H. pylori and analysed a snapshot of peptic ulcer cases. Ten statistical models that incorporated important events-H. pylori infection, the cohort effect, eradication therapy, and the natural trend for reduction-were fitted to the case data. The hazard of infection with H. pylori was extracted from published estimates. Models were compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and factor contributions were quantified using the coefficient of determination. The best-fit model indicated that 88.1% of the observed snapshot of cases (AIC=289.2) included the effects of (i) H. pylori infection, (ii) the cohort effect, and (iii) eradication therapy, as explanatory variables, the contributions of which were 80.8%, 4.0%, and 3.2%, respectively. Among inpatients, a simpler model with (i) H. pylori infection only was favoured (AIC=107.7). The time-dependent epidemiological dynamics of peptic ulcers were captured, and H. pylori infection and eradication therapy explained ≥84% of the dramatic decline in peptic ulcer occurrence..

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Estimating the Force of Infection with Helicobacter pylori in Japan

Cited by 6 publications

References 32 publications

Review: Epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori infection

Review: Epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori infection

Predicting the Epidemiological Dynamics of Lung Cancer in Japan

Dramatic shift in the epidemiology of peptic ulcer in Japan: the impact of Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy

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