Estimating the future global dose demand for Measles-Rubella microarray patches

Ko, Melissa; Malvolti, Stefano; Cherian, Thomas; Mantel, Carsten; Biellik, Robin; Jarrahian, Courtney; Menozzi-Arnaud, Marion; Amorij, Jean-Pierre; Christiansen, Hans; Papania, Mark J.; Meltzer, Martin I.; Masresha, Balcha; Pastor, Desireé; Dürrheim, David N; Giersing, Birgitte; Hasso-Agopsowicz, Mateusz

doi:10.1101/2022.08.11.22278665

Cited by 2 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Aligning with the approach used in Global Market Study for MCVs, 26 Ko et al projected global demand for MCV doses over 2030⍰2040 and developed use cases of MR-MAPs in needle-based immunisation programmes at the country level. 27 The forecasts were adapted to coverage inputs and delivery components for the scenarios we evaluated in this cost-effectiveness analysis of introducing MR-MAPs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aligning with the approach used in Global Market Study for MCVs, 26 27 The forecasts were adapted to coverage inputs and delivery components for the scenarios we evaluated in this cost-effectiveness analysis of introducing MR-MAPs.…”

Section: Coverage Projectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The hard-to-reach populations include those in urban slums, security compromised, humanitarian settings, and remote/rural areas, while 2% of children under 2 years old were assumed to experience missed opportunities for measles vaccination. 27 Two introduction strategies for MR-MAPs across countries were evaluated according to multiple factors, such as vaccine introduction history, disease burden, and funding for immunisation programmes. 27 Under 'sequential' introduction, countries introduce MR-MAPs sequentially over the years between 2030D2040; those with higher measles and rubella burden and better operational and financial states for new vaccine introductions will adopt MR-MAPs in earlier years.…”

Section: Mr-maps Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…27 Two introduction strategies for MR-MAPs across countries were evaluated according to multiple factors, such as vaccine introduction history, disease burden, and funding for immunisation programmes. 27 Under 'sequential' introduction, countries introduce MR-MAPs sequentially over the years between 2030D2040; those with higher measles and rubella burden and better operational and financial states for new vaccine introductions will adopt MR-MAPs in earlier years. Alternatively, 'accelerated' introduction allows countries with the greatest need, based on their MCV1 coverage and disease burden only, to be prioritised for MR-MAPs introduction.…”

Section: Mr-maps Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Abbas

Malvolti³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background Microarray patches are a promising technology being developed to reduce barriers to vaccine delivery based on needles and syringes. To address the evidence gap on the public health value of applying this potential technology to immunisation programmes, we evaluated the health impact on measles burden and resulting cost-effectiveness of introducing measles-rubella microarray patches (MR-MAPs) in 70 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods We used an age-structured dynamic model of measles transmission and vaccination to project measles cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years during 2030─2040. Compared to the baseline scenarios with continuing current needle-based immunisation practice, we evaluated the introduction of MR-MAPs under different assumptions on measles vaccine coverage projections and MR-MAP introduction strategies. Costs were calculated based on the ingredients approach, including direct cost of measles treatment, vaccine procurement, and vaccine delivery. Model-based burden and cost estimates were derived for individual countries and country income groups. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of introducing MR-MAPs to health opportunity costs. Results MR-MAPs introduction could prevent 27%─37% of measles burden between 2030─2040 in 70 LMICs. The largest health impact could be achieved under lower coverage projection and accelerated introduction strategy, with 39 million measles cases averted. Cost of measles treatment is a key driver of the net cost of introduction. In LMICs with a relatively higher income, introducing MR-MAPs could be a cost-saving intervention due to reduction in measles treatment costs. Compared to country-specific health opportunity costs, introducing MR-MAPs would be cost-effective in 16─81% of LMICs, depending on the MR-MAPs procurement price and vaccine coverage projections. Conclusions Introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs can be a cost-effective strategy to revitalise measles immunisation programmes with stagnant uptake and reach under-vaccinated children. Sustainable introduction and uptake of MR-MAPs has the potential to improve vaccine equity within and between countries and accelerate progress towards measles elimination.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Coverage Projectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mr-maps Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mr-maps Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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