Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change

Magnan, Alexandre; Pörtner, Hans‐Otto; Duvat, Virginie; Garschagen, Matthias; Guinder, Valeria A.; Zommers, Zinta; Høegh-Guldberg, Ove; Gattuso, Jean‐Pierre

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01156-w

Cited by 118 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Risk is valued differently by different sectors and communities, making it challenging to compare across sectors 82 . Whilst the IPCC provided a first broad estimate of sectoral risk, it was not possible to: (i) compare the magnitude of climate risk across these sectors, (ii) identify the relative importance of climate stressors as compared to non-climate stressors, such as land-use or pollution, in affecting sectors and their service provision, (iii) account for systemic feedbacks amongst sectoral risks which may under-or over-represent climate risk.…”

Section: Limitations and Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals

et al. 2022

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The international community has committed to achieve 169 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets by 2030 and to enhance climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement. Despite the potential for synergies, aligning SDG and climate adaptation efforts is inhibited by an inadequate understanding of the complex relationship between SDG targets and adaptation to impacts of climate change. Here we propose a framework to conceptualise how ecosystems and socio-economic sectors mediate this relationship, which provides a more nuanced understanding of the impacts of climate change on all 169 SDG targets. Global application of the framework reveals that adaptation of wetlands, rivers, cropland, construction, water, electricity, and housing in the most vulnerable countries is required to safeguard achievement of 68% of SDG targets from near-term climate risk by 2030. We discuss how our framework can help align National Adaptation Plans with SDG targets, thus ensuring that adaptation advances, rather than detracts from, sustainable development.

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Section: Limitations and Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals

et al. 2022

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“…Modern scientific research proves that the root cause of climate change is greenhouse gas emissions, which are accompanied by the declining ability of the planet to absorb them. Both processes are anthropogenic in nature (Hegerl et al, 2007;Magnan et al, 2021;Steffen et al, 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and European Climate Policy

Prandecki¹

2022

Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economi

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in 2022, thirty years have passed since the adoption of the United nations Framework convention on climate change. This period is long enough to evaluate the effectiveness of this policy. The aim of this paper is to determine the achievements of climate policy so far and the most likely directions for further actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Particular attention was paid to agricultural emissions, which results from the significant share of agriculture in global emissions and the specific structure of emissions, i.e., the significant role of the sector in methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The paper uses statistical analysis based on the World Bank data. it was supplemented by a critical analysis of the literature on climate policy. The presented results show that the current policy does not bring the expected results. There are, however, some examples (the european Union), where the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is visible. as a result, the share of community emissions in global emissions tends to decrease. This applies to both total and agricultural emissions, i.e., methane and nitrous oxide. Based on the presented data and global trends, it seems most likely that the current direction of changes will be continued, i.e., poor care for climate on a global scale and increasing emission restrictions in selected regions of the world. nevertheless, this solution will be ineffective, since climate change is a global problem and must be solved globally.

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“…Stakeholder interviews on Loss and Damage showed that the existential perspective is prevalent in the UNFCCC among other perspectives, referring to climate change as unavoidable and having irreversible impacts for some communities and systems (Boyd et al 2017 ). The IPCC SR15 furthermore presents evidence of relevance to the discussion on local existential risks in health systems (e.g., the proliferation of heatwaves in megacities) and in coastal systems, including in some small islands where compounding risks linked to sea-level rise and surge, salinization, heatwaves, and drought could lead to some degree of relocation or displacement during this century (Magnan et al 2021 ). Such cases of impacts and risks might not be existential for humanity as a whole but certainly for those communities affected, especially in cases where loss of land, sovereign government, or cultural heritage cannot be accommodated by insurance schemes or other monetary mechanisms (Heyward 2014 ; Page and Heyward 2017 ; Wallimann-Helmer et al 2019 ).…”

Section: Definitions Concepts and Narratives Of Existential Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

The existential risk space of climate change

et al. 2022

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Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the high end of the risk, i.e., where risks become existential, is poorly framed, defined, and analyzed in the scientific literature. This gap is at odds with the fundamental relevance of existential risks for humanity, and it also limits the ability of scientific communities to engage with emerging debates and narratives about the existential dimension of climate change that have recently gained considerable traction. This paper intends to address this gap by scoping and defining existential risks related to climate change. We first review the context of existential risks and climate change, drawing on research in fields on global catastrophic risks, and on key risks and the so-called Reasons for Concern in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also consider how existential risks are framed in the civil society climate movement as well as what can be learned in this respect from the COVID-19 crisis. To better frame existential risks in the context of climate change, we propose to define them as those risks that threaten the existence of a subject, where this subject can be an individual person, a community, or nation state or humanity. The threat to their existence is defined by two levels of severity: conditions that threaten (1) survival and (2) basic human needs. A third level, well-being, is commonly not part of the space of existential risks. Our definition covers a range of different scales, which leads us into further defining six analytical dimensions: physical and social processes involved, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In conclusion, we suggest that a clearer and more precise definition and framing of existential risks of climate change such as we offer here facilitates scientific analysis as well societal and political discourse and action.

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Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change

Cited by 118 publications

References 25 publications

Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals

Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals

Global and European Climate Policy

The existential risk space of climate change

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