Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model

Abstract

Objectives: A 'Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)' monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on June 23, 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as July 25. Design: A modeling study. Setting and Participants: Daily confirmed Monkeypox cases of the global, United States, Spain, Brazil, and United Kingdom were retrieved from the Global health team till September 23,2022. All conducted analyses are at the aggregate level. without involvement of confidential information. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The Bayesian SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model with Directed Acyclic Graphic method was used to estimate the basic/effective reproductive number (R0/ Re) and to assess the epidemic spread of Monkeypox in the globe. Results: The maximum estimated R0/ Re was 1.16 (1.15-1.17), 1.20 (1.20-1.20), 1.34 (1.34-1.35), and 1.33 (1.33-1.33) in United States, Spain, Brazil, and United Kingdom, respectively. The values of R0/ Re was toward to below 1 after August, 2022. The estimated infectious time before isolation ranged from 2.05 to 2.74 days. Conclusions: The PHEIC of global spreading of human Monkeypox outside Africa has been contained so as to avoid a pandemic in the light of the reasoning-based epidemic model assessment.

Mpox outbreak control indicators used in Ontario, Canada: May 21–December 10, 2022

“…For example, some studies published during the mpox outbreak used other indicators (e.g., basic reproductive number) to examine the trajectory of cases and rapid growth of the outbreak. [6][7][8][9][10] The objective of this study is to summarize the process used in Ontario to choose key outbreak indicators to monitor mpox control and declare the outbreak over. expertise/advice, including for communicable disease outbreaks.…”