Estimating the Growth Impact of Economic Transformation in Qatar

Abstract

Qatar’s economic growth and improvements in living standards have been underpinned by a state-led, hydrocarbon-intensive growth model. More recently, Qatar has been undergoing an economic transformation toward a growth model that is more dynamic, knowledge-based, sustainable, and led by the private sector. It will be guided by the recently published Third National Development Strategy, which aims to achieve the National Vision 2030. This paper suggests key reforms to achieve this goal, quantifying their potential impact on the real economy using a semi-structural, general equilibrium model that includes Qatar. Model simulations suggest substantial benefits from labor market reforms, particularly those that would increase the participation of skilled expatriate workers. They also suggest large growth gains from reforms for the business environment, including those that improve access to finance.