Estimating the growth models of news stories on disasters

Abstract

Understanding the growth models of news stories on disasters is a key issue for efficient disaster management. This article proposes a method to identify three growth models: the Damped Exponential Model, the Normal Model, and the Fluctuating Model. This method is proven to be valid using the 112 disasters occurring between 2003 and 2008. The factors that influence the likelihood of the growth models include disaster types, newsworthy material, disaster severity, and economic development of the affected area. This article suggests that disaster decision-makers can identify the respective likelihood of the three growth models of news stories when a disaster happens, and thereby implement effective measures in response to the disaster situation. IntroductionDisasters can be defined as acute, collectively experienced traumatic events with a sudden onset, and they can be both natural (e.g., hurricanes, floods, earthquakes) and man-made (e.g., plane crashes, industrial accidents, terrorist attacks) (Norris, Friedman, & Watson, 2002). Meeting the information needs of the public and providing timely support are vital in disaster situations (Keselman, Slaughter, & Vimla, 2005). When a disaster hits an entire community or nation, most people experience the event largely through mass media (Rasinski, Berktold, Smith, & Albertson, 2002). In a world of severe competition, media organizations are also interested in boosting popularity ratings, and so may favor shocking or sensational information (Nacos, 2005). Despite the mass media's role as the most frequent source of information for the public to learn about disasters, the mass media are required to make choices about what they will share and emphasize in order to satisfy the public's demand for information about a disaster (Seeger, Sellnow, & Ulmer, 2003). In some instances, some information from mass media can arouse negative effects. Studies show that the number of news stories on a disaster directly affects audience response (CDC, 2002). The effects of news coverage of disasters on children can be especially troubling because the context of the disaster may not be understood clearly.The effective communication of disaster information is an important consideration for the mass media. Studies show that disaster coverage comprises a number of stages (Fink, 1986;Pauchant & Mitroff, 1992). According to the life-cycle perspective, the number of daily news stories about a disaster will increase until it reaches a vertex, then decrease (Rogers, Dearing, & Chang, 1991;Thelwall & Hellsten, 2006). This perspective is proved by some typical disasters, such as epidemic diseases and hurricanes (Shih, Wijaya, & Brossard, 2008). But do various disasters have a similar news coverage model? If not, what determines the coverage models? These questions have not been solved by quantitative methods yet.With the rapid development of society and the economy in China, natural or human caused disasters happen more and more frequently. Every day the public is exposed to a large volume of disast...

Household adoption of smog protective behavior: a comparison between two Chinese cities

“…Information about risk plays a major role not only in the subjective recollection of previous personal experience, but also in influencing those without such direct exposure (Shaw, Kobayashi, and Kobayashi 2004;Wei, Zhao, and Liang 2009;Wachinger et al 2013). Kasperson et al (1988) talk about the social amplification of risk referring to the effects of the broader psychological, social, institutional, and cultural processes affecting people's perception and behavioral responses.…”

Introduction to the Special Section on “Chinese Earthquake Risk Management”

“…Tele-videos and wireless communications devices have been applied to aid quick response to disasters in the oil and natural gas sector (Engel 2009). Statistical analysis of growth models have been used to categorize disasters into three categories of growth (damped exponential, normal, fluctuating), so that news stories can be monitored at the onset of a disaster to better predict those events that will dissipate as opposed to those that will grow to be serious disasters (Wei et al 2009). Advanced modeling in the form of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms in combination with geographical information systems have been developed to support evacuation planning (Saadatseresht et al 2009).…”

Ensuring Effective News Coverage in Disasters: A Study of News Coverage Capability in China

“…Disaster news coverage comprises several stages, with coverage increasing to a peak and then decreasing (Rogers, Dearing, & Chang ). Wei, Zhao, and Liang ( ) proposed three growth models to describe the ways that crises are covered by the media: the normal model, the damped exponential model, and the fluctuating model. In each model, there is a point that corresponds to the day with the greatest number of news stories about a particular disaster.…”

“…Previous studies of disaster coverage have dealt with the role of media in disaster communication, relationships between media and audience, relationships between disaster response and relief, the accuracy of stories, and growth models of disaster news coverage (Fischer, ; Littlefield and Quenette, ; Wei, Zhao, and Liang, ). Most recent studies indicate that news coverage is determined by the characteristics of the crisis or disaster, as well as social, economic, and technical factors, and propose a number of indicators to measure the impact of these factors.…”

“…Wei, Zhao, and Liang ( ) propose growth models for news coverage that are determined by disaster type, the newsworthiness of the material, the severity of the disaster, and the level of economic development. Since the Web is now an important source of disaster news for both the public and media agencies, it is also an important factor in media coverage.…”