Estimating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on alternative semi-intensive shrimp (Penaeus vannamei) production schedules in Mexico: a stochastic bioeconomic approach

Abstract

This study uses a stochastic bioeconomic approach to estimate the COVID-19 pandemic economic impact on shrimp farming in Mexico. Seeding-harvesting schedules — March–June, May–August, and August–November — were analyzed using shrimp prices and production costs corresponding to 2017–2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020 (pandemic). The analyses estimated net revenue varied within 597.97–2758.88 USD$ ha −1 and 1262.40–1701.32 USD$ ha −1 under the pre-pandemic and pandemic scenarios, respectively. Significant decreases (38%) were estimated in net revenue values in March–June and May–August under the pandemic scenario. However, probability distributions estimated that uncertainty on the expected net revenues was not affected by the pandemic conditions, and the probability of losing was null or negligible in all the cases. Unfavorable conditions under the pandemic also required significantly higher break-even production for March–June (25.7%) and May–August (28.5%) schedules. The cost of post-larvae was the most important economic factor influencing net revenue. To conclude, although the operating conditions during the pandemic were conducive to worsening the economic outcome, no evidence still exists that uncertainty and economic risk increased compared with pre-pandemic conditions.