Estimating the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Garuga forrestii, an Endemic Species in China

Abstract

Understanding how species have adapted and responded to past climate provides insights into the present geographical distribution and may improve predictions of how biotic communities will respond to future climate change. Therefore, estimating the distribution and potentially suitable habitats is essential for conserving sensitive species such as Garuga forrestii W.W.Sm., a tree species endemic to China. The potential climatic zones of G. forrestii were modelled in MaxEnt software using 24 geographic points and nine environmental variables for the current and future (2050 and 2070) conditions under two climate representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The resulting ecological niche models (ENMs) demonstrated adequate internal assessment metrics, with all AUC and TSS values being >0.79 and a pROC of >1.534. Our results also showed that the distribution of G. forrestii was primarily influenced by temperature seasonality (% contribution = 12%), elevation (% contribution = 27.5%), and precipitation of the wettest month (% contribution = 35.6%). Our findings also indicated that G. forrestii might occupy an area of 309,516.2 km2 in southwestern China. We note that the species has a potential distribution in three provinces, including Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guangxi. A significant decline in species range is observed under the future worst case of high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), with about 19.5% and 20% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. Similarly, higher elevations shift northward to southern parts of Sichuan province in 2050 and 2070. Thus, this study helps highlight the vulnerability of the species, response to future climate and provides an insight to assess habitat suitability for conservation management.

The potential distributions of African Azolla species and their implications for African wetland ecosystems for the future

“…Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are the most frequently used technique for predicting the impact of future climate change on species' ranges and distributions. ENMs are used to forecast current and future environmental suitability and provide recommendations for identifying priority areas for protection (Tiamiyu et al, 2021), management, and conservation of species (Nzei et al, 2021), and restoration of habitats (Johnson et al, 2017; Zwiener et al, 2017). As the effects of climate change intensify, the capacity of a species to colonize new suitable habitat is dependent on the individuals' dispersal ability, landing in appropriate habitat, and stable population establishment (Angert et al, 2011; Wolf et al, 2001).…”

Climate warming will affect the range dynamics of East Asian Meehania species: A maximum entropy approach.

“…Among the most popular species distribution models is the MaxEnt modelling technique. According to previous studies, MaxEnt outperforms other modelling techniques for predicting species distribution (Elith et al, 2011), as it can predict the distribution of suitable habitats for range-restricted or endemic species with a distinct natural history spanning various habitats (i.e., terrestrial or aquatic, e.g., Tiamiyu et al, 2021;Ngarega et al, 2022). MaxEnt also has the ability to avoid commission and omission errors when projection species distribution (Townsend et al, 2007).…”

“…Both human populations and biodiversity have been affected by climate change (Shivanna, 2022;Mkala et al, 2022); examples of the latter include changes in species distribution (Tiamiyu et al, 2021;Ngarega et al, 2022) and pest and disease outbreaks (Simons et al, 2019).…”

“…For example, precipitation is the major climatic factor determining the distribution of Akebia quinata in East Asia(Zhang et al, 2022). In addition, temperature, precipitation, and elevation (> 2300 m asl) account for a sizeable contributory in uence in the distribution of Garuga forrestii found in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guangxi(Tiamiyu et al, 2021).Ecological niche models assume that species' present native ranges and essential climatic tolerances are almost identical. However, rapid evolution may change species' adaptations to new climatic conditions in the future, enabling populations to persist in various locations amid changing conditions.…”

Bioclimatic Modeling of Current Geographic Distribution and Future Range Shifts of Selected Edible Mushrooms in Nigeria

“…The widespread consensus is that worldwide climate change will modify the global geographic distributions of species (Salako et al, 2021;Oyebanji et al, 2021;Ngarega et al, 2022). This research demonstrates that ecological niche models (ENMs) serve as dependable instruments for examining and comprehending the factors impacting the potential distribution of species across various levels (Tiamiyu et al, 2021;Yan et al, 2022). Accurate forecasts of species diversity and composition are essential for formulating strategic management policies and conservation measures to prevent biodiversity decline and associated crises (Farooqi et al, 2022).…”