Estimating the Potential Risks of Sea Level Rise for Public and Private Property Ownership, Occupation and Management

Abstract

The estimation of future sea level rise (SLR) is a major concern for cities near coastlines and river systems. Despite this, current modelling underestimates the future risks of SLR to property. Direct risks posed to property include inundation, loss of physical property and associated economic and social costs. It is also crucial to consider the risks that emerge from scenarios after SLR. These may produce one-off or periodic events that will inflict physical, economic and social implications, and direct, indirect and consequential losses. Using a case study approach, this paper combines various forms of data to examine the implications of future SLR to further understand the potential risks. The research indicates that the financial implications for local government will be loss of rates associated with total property loss and declines in value. The challenges identified are not specific to this research. Other municipalities worldwide experience similar barriers (i.e., financial implications, coastal planning predicaments, data paucity, knowledge and capacity, and legal and political challenges). This research highlights the need for private and public stakeholders to co-develop and implement strategies to mitigate and adapt property to withstand the future challenges of climate change and SLR.

Barriers to climate change adaption in the Australian property industry

“…Of the academic research that has been undertaken in this field, most has focused on the effect of climate change impacts (both short and long term) on real estate values. The majority of that research has researched extreme weather events (Changnon et al , 2000; Bienert, 2014, 2016), and sea level rise (Bin et al , 2011; Neumann et al , 2015; Putra et al , 2015; Zhang et al , 2011; Ortega and Taspinar, 2018; Warren-Myers et al , 2018; Walsh et al , 2019) in terms of both the amount of land impacted, the associated financial costs, or the implications for insurance and other costs (Insurance Council of Australia, 2008; Latham et al , 2010; Botzen et al , 2009).…”

“…These risks lead to numerous losses, ranging from direct losses, to property damage, to more indirect losses associated with increasing vacancy rates, loss of tenants or premium tenants, reduction in rentals and property values, rising utilities prices, increased materials and resources costs, and the increasing costs of compliance (Smith, 2013; Warren-Myers et al , 2018).…”

Real Estate Sector in the Face of Climate Change Adaptation in Major Polish Cities

“…The risk of flooding, i.e. the probability of flooding and damage to private and public assets, is rising (Mcalpine & Porter, 2018;Warren-Myers et al, 2018).…”

“…The durability of resources, such as coastal properties, has been gaining importance (Bunten & Kahn, 2017;Fu et al, 2016;Andréa et al, 2016;Nunes, Souza & Harari, 2017;Chouinard, Rabeniaina & Weissenberger, 2013;Nolon, 2015;Veelen, 2016;Mcnamara & Keeler, 2013;Chouinard, 2013;Parkinson, 2009;Mcalpine & Porter, 2018;Warren-Myers et al, 2018;Binbin & Jie 2018;Mcnamara et al, 2018). The question arises how we can protect buildings and technical infrastructure from damage.…”

“…Depending on the strategy, we can identify different final costs and benefits to real estate owners, local authorities, and entire cities [Table 2]. The need to engage public and private funds in climate change adaptation is very strongly highlighted (Bisaro & Hinkel, 2018;Warren-Myers et al, 2018). Only by making parallel efforts in both sectors can we expect the highest economic, social, and environmental benefits.…”