Estimating the Reduction in Future Fleet-Level CO2 Emissions From Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Abstract

With rising concerns over commercial aviation’s contribution to global carbon emissions, the aviation industry faces tremendous pressure to adopt advanced solutions for reducing its share of CO2 emissions. One near-term potential solution to mitigate this global emissions situation is to operate existing aircraft with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF); this solution requires almost no modification to current aircraft, making it the “quickest” approach to reduce aviation carbon emissions, albeit the actual impact will be determined by the degree to which airlines adopt and use SAF, the ticket price impact of SAF, and the future growth of travel demand. This article presents results that estimate the expected fleet-wide emissions of future airline operations using SAF considering various projected traveler demand and biofuel penetration/utilization levels. The work demonstrates an approach to make these predictions by modeling the behavior of a profit-seeking airline using the Fleet-Level Environmental Evaluation Tool (FLEET). Considering five future SAF scenarios and two future passenger demand projection scenarios, FLEET estimates future fleet-level CO2 emissions, showcasing the possible upper and lower bounds on future aviation emissions when SAF is introduced for use in airline fleets. Results show that the future fleet-level CO2 emissions for all scenarios with SAF are lower than the baseline scenario with no SAF, for all demand projection scenarios. The passenger demand served and the trips flown for a given SAF scenario depends on the SAF price and the biofuel penetration levels. This shows that even if airlines serve a higher passenger demand for some future scenarios, the carbon emissions could still be lower than the current baseline scenario where airlines only use conventional jet fuel.

Combustion, Chemistry, and Carbon Neutrality

“…Most literature reviews and discussions have focused on synthesis routes; − general performance characteristics of SAFs including local pollutant emissions; GHG emissions, radiative forcing, and climate impact; − as well as life-cycle analyses and techno-economic assessments for alternative aviation fuel candidates. − Specific suggestions include biobased cycloalkanes as pathway to aromatic-free high-performance aviation fuels, decentralized FT synthesis at airports to avoid fuel transportation losses, synthesis of electrofuels with drop-in potential from cellulosic-biomass-derived platform chemicals, exploration of suitable regions for solarthermal SAF production, utilization of CO 2 as a resource, of waste through gasification or different liquefaction technologies, , and of algae as basis for jet fuel production . Furthermore, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, ethanol, LNG, and other options are being discussed as future jet fuels, compounds whose combustion has, in part, already been discussed (Section ).…”

Technology Route Options of China’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Analysis Based on the TOPSIS Method

“…It represents the most commercially applicable measure for emission reduction in the short to medium term within the aviation industry [2]. Assessments by international organizations, such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), indicate that SAF Energies 2023, 16, 7597 2 of 20 has a decarbonization potential exceeding 55% [3,4]. SAF refers to aviation fuel made from renewable resources or waste materials, certified for safety and sustainability.…”