Estimating the seasonally varying effect of meteorological factors on the district-level incidence of acute watery diarrhea among under-five children of Iran, 2014–2018: a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model

Masinaei, Masoud

doi:10.1007/s00484-022-02263-9

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…In addition, our meta-analysis suggests that where there is low access to improved toilets and drinking water sources, there is a positive pooled effect estimate between temperature and childhood diarrhea, with IRR = 1.06 [1.00, 1.13]. This is supported by other research that indicated high access to piped water and the public sewerage network could decrease the incidence of diarrhea with an increased mean temperature [47].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

“…Figure 3. Forest plot of the systematic review of the association between temperature and childhood diarrhea after removing the articles that contributed to high heterogeneity (the funnel plot displaying the corresponding publication bias is shown in the Supplementary Materials; Figure S4) [24,26,27,32,33,35,37,39,41,43,45,47,[50][51][52][53][54][55]58].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forest plot of the meta-analysis on the modified association between temperature and childhood diarrhea due to water and sanitation conditions. Effect modifiers on temp-diarrhea association refers Effect modifiers on the temperature-diarrhea association [32,39,47].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rainfall and Temperature Influences on Childhood Diarrhea and the Effect Modification Role of Water and Sanitation Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Geremew,

Cumming,

Haddis

et al. 2024

IJERPH

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The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the worsening impacts of climate change. Two climate factors—temperature and rainfall uncertainties—influence the risk of childhood diarrhea, which remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. They create a conducive environment for diarrhea-causing pathogens and overwhelm environmental prevention measures. This study aimed to produce comprehensive evidence on the association of temperature and rainfall variability with the risk of childhood diarrhea and the influence of water and sanitation conditions on those associations. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) approach. Records published in English from 2006 to 2023 were searched on 8 January 2024 via PubMed, EMBASE, ScienceDirect, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, and Google/Google Scholar using comprehensive search terms. We assessed studies for any risk of bias using the Navigation Guide and rated the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. The heterogeneity among estimates was assessed using I-squared statistics (I2). The findings of the analysis were presented with forest plots using an incidence rate ratio (IRR). A meta-analysis was conducted on effect modifiers (water supply and sanitation conditions) using a random effects model with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The statistical analyses were conducted using R 4.3.2 software and Review Manager 5.3. A total of 2017 records were identified through searches, and only the 36 articles that met the inclusion criteria were included. The analysis suggests a small positive association between increased temperature and the occurrence of under-five diarrhea, with the pooled IRR = 1.04; 95% CI [1.03, 1.05], at I2 = 56% and p-value < 0.01, and increased rainfall and U5 diarrhea, with IRR = 1.14; 95% CI [1.03, 1.27], at I2 = 86% and p-value < 0.01. The meta-analysis indicated a positive association between unimproved latrine facilities and drinking water sources with a rainfall-modified effect on U5 diarrhea, with IRR = 1.21; 95% CI [0.95, 1.53], at I2 = 62% and p-value = 0.03. We found that an increase in mean temperature and rainfall was associated with an increased risk of childhood diarrhea. Where there were unimproved latrine facilities and drinking water sources, the increase in mean rainfall or temperature would increase the incidence of childhood diarrhea. The results of this review help in assessing the effectiveness of current intervention programs, making changes as needed, or creating new initiatives to lower the prevalence of childhood diarrhea.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rainfall and Temperature Influences on Childhood Diarrhea and the Effect Modification Role of Water and Sanitation Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Geremew,

Cumming,

Haddis

et al. 2024

IJERPH

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“…Similar findings are reported from Peru, where an increase of a 1 • C in the mean temperature elevated the clinic visits of childhood diarrhea sufferers by 3.8% (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.038, 95% CI: 1.032-1.044) [14]. Moreover, a diarrhea study of the population under 5 years old reported that temperature has a positive association of 0.0497% in districts of Iran (IRR: 1.0497, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.0254-1.0748) [39]. A possible explanation is that warm ambient environment could speed up the replication of pathogens and may lead to food spoiling easily [35].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Precipitation on Diarrhea Incidence in Surabaya

Wibawa

Maharani

Andhikaputra

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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Background: Diarrhea remains a common infectious disease caused by various risk factors in developing countries. This study investigated the incidence rate and temporal associations between diarrhea and meteorological determinants in five regions of Surabaya, Indonesia. Method: Monthly diarrhea records from local governmental health facilities in Surabaya and monthly means of weather variables, including average temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity from Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency were collected from January 2018 to September 2020. The generalized additive model was employed to quantify the time lag association between diarrhea risk and extremely low (5th percentile) and high (95th percentile) monthly weather variations in the north, central, west, south, and east regions of Surabaya (lag of 0–2 months). Result: The average incidence rate for diarrhea was 11.4 per 100,000 during the study period, with a higher incidence during rainy season (November to March) and in East Surabaya. This study showed that the weather condition with the lowest diarrhea risks varied with the region. The diarrhea risks were associated with extremely low and high temperatures, with the highest RR of 5.39 (95% CI 4.61, 6.17) in the east region, with 1 month of lag time following the extreme temperatures. Extremely low relative humidity increased the diarrhea risks in some regions of Surabaya, with the highest risk in the west region at lag 0 (RR = 2.13 (95% CI 1.79, 2.47)). Extremely high precipitation significantly affects the risk of diarrhea in the central region, at 0 months of lag time, with an RR of 3.05 (95% CI 2.09, 4.01). Conclusion: This study identified a high incidence of diarrhea in the rainy season and in the deficient developed regions of Surabaya, providing evidence that weather magnifies the adverse effects of inadequate environmental sanitation. This study suggests the local environmental and health sectors codevelop a weather-based early warning system and improve local sanitation practices as prevention measures in response to increasing risks of infectious diseases.

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Social disparities and inequalities in healthcare access and expenditures among Iranians exposed to sulfur mustard: a national study using spatio-temporal analysis

Hosseini-Shokouh,

Ghanei,

Mousavi

et al. 2023

BMC Health Serv Res

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Background Sulfur Mustard (SM) is a chemical warfare agent that has serious short-term and long-term effects on health. Thousands of Iranians were exposed to SM during the eight-year Iran-Iraq conflict and permanently injured while the socioeconomic imbalance in their healthcare utilization (HCU) and health expenditures remains. This study aims to describe the HCU of SM-exposed survivors in Iran from 2018 to 2021; identify high-risk areas; and apply an inequality analysis of utilization regarding the socioeconomic groups to reduce the gap by controlling crucial determinants. Methods From Oct 2018 to June 2021, the Veterans and Martyrs Affairs Foundation (VMAF) recorded 58,888 living war survivors with eye, lung, and skin ailments. After cleaning the dataset and removing junk codes, we defined 11 HCU-related variables and predicted the HCU for the upcoming years using Bayesian spatio-temporal models. We explored the association of individual-level HCU and determinants using a Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model and also investigated the provincial hotspots using Local Moran’s I. Results With ≥ 90% confidence, we discovered eleven HCU clusters in Iran. We discovered that the expected number of HCU 1) rises with increasing age, severity of complications in survivors' eyes and lungs, wealth index (WI), life expectancy (LE), and hospital beds ratio; and 2) decreases with growing skin complications, years of schooling (YOS), urbanization, number of hospital beds, length of stay (LOS) in bed, and bed occupancy rate (BOR). The concentration index (CInd) of HCU and associated costs in age and wealth groups were all positive, however, the signs of CInd values for HCU and total cost in YOS, urbanization, LOS, and Hospital beds ratio groups were not identical. Conclusions We observed a tendency of pro-rich inequity and also higher HCU and expenditures for the elderly population. Finally, health policies should tackle potential socioeconomic inequities to reduce HCU gaps in the SM-exposed population. Also, policymakers should allocate the resources according to the hotspots of HCU.

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Estimating the seasonally varying effect of meteorological factors on the district-level incidence of acute watery diarrhea among under-five children of Iran, 2014–2018: a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model

Cited by 5 publications

References 62 publications

Rainfall and Temperature Influences on Childhood Diarrhea and the Effect Modification Role of Water and Sanitation Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Rainfall and Temperature Influences on Childhood Diarrhea and the Effect Modification Role of Water and Sanitation Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Effects of Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Precipitation on Diarrhea Incidence in Surabaya

Social disparities and inequalities in healthcare access and expenditures among Iranians exposed to sulfur mustard: a national study using spatio-temporal analysis

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