Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector outputs in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600–1874

Saito, Osamu; Takashima, Masanori

doi:10.1093/ereh/hew007

Cited by 18 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…As previous studies note, Tokugawa Japan is normally described as a period of Smithian growth, which is a period of gradual economic growth led by market extension and increased divisions of labour (Smith, ; Hayami, ; Saito, ; Saito and Takashima, ).…”

Section: Economic Growth Urbanisation and Population Densitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Malanima () suggests that there are two ways to estimate pre‐modern GDP shares of the non‐agricultural sectors under the paucity of macro data for the observed period. The first method is based on a correlation between the urbanisation rate and sectoral shares derived from modern data; it is this methodology that Saito and Takashima () adopted with substantial modifications. The second method, which was used for his own estimation of Italian GDP shares of the non‐primary sectors, is based on the following equation:

\frac{Y_{na (t)}}{Y_{((), t)}} = ((), \frac{Y_{italicna ((), 0)}}{Y_{(0)}}) \times ((), \frac{L_{italicna ((), t)}}{L_{italicna ((), 0)}})

where Y na /Y is the share of non‐agricultural output in total output, L na is the share of labour force employed in non‐agricultural sectors, and 0 and t denote the base (1850–61) and the reference period, respectively.…”

Section: Economic Growth Urbanisation and Population Densitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More specifically, the sectoral labour inputs are estimated with the assumption that the sector's share in the labour force can be strongly correlated with the ratio of urbanisation (defined with respect to 10,000 and over) and population density. Saito and Takashima () argue that population density can capture the effect of rural development in the form of proto‐industry or petty trade, or both, which characterised the latter half of the Tokugawa period. Moreover, they stress the correlation between the urbanisation rate (logit transformed) and population density (log transformed), which are normally presumed to be endogenous, is weak in 1874 if highly urbanised prefectures (such as Tokyo and Osaka) were excluded (Saito and Takashima, , Section 3).…”

Section: Economic Growth Urbanisation and Population Densitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Saito and Takashima () argue that population density can capture the effect of rural development in the form of proto‐industry or petty trade, or both, which characterised the latter half of the Tokugawa period. Moreover, they stress the correlation between the urbanisation rate (logit transformed) and population density (log transformed), which are normally presumed to be endogenous, is weak in 1874 if highly urbanised prefectures (such as Tokyo and Osaka) were excluded (Saito and Takashima, , Section 3). They conclude, therefore, that urbanisation was not the chief determinant of population density, or vice versa, in the early‐Meiji period as well as the Tokugawa period.…”

Section: Economic Growth Urbanisation and Population Densitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this article, we also examine a structural change and sectoral labour productivity in pre‐industrial Japan during the Tokugawa period (1603–1867) by combining newly estimated sectoral labour inputs with the corresponding GDP figures derived from Saito and Takashima (). These new estimates allow us to grasp the initial conditions of modern economic growth starting from the late nineteenth century through comparative analysis with the labour productivity estimates for the age of industrialisation in Japan provided by Fukao et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Labour Productivity Growth in the Long Run: Japan, 1600–1909

Settsu

Takashima

2020

Aust Econ Hist Rev

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This article examines long‐term labour productivity change in Japan from the early seventeenth century to the nineteenth century. We constructed sectoral labour force estimates based on the methodology presented in a previous study, who provided a sectoral GDP series covering the Tokugawa period. Our results show the industrial structure in the Tokugawa period remained relatively stable in comparison with the economy after the Meiji Restoration. Nevertheless, the estimates of sectoral labour productivity suggest expansion of the market economy in Tokugawa Japan influenced the development of industrialisation after the Meiji Restoration.

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Section: Economic Growth Urbanisation and Population Densitymentioning

confidence: 99%

\frac{Y_{na (t)}}{Y_{((), t)}} = ((), \frac{Y_{italicna ((), 0)}}{Y_{(0)}}) \times ((), \frac{L_{italicna ((), t)}}{L_{italicna ((), 0)}})

Section: Economic Growth Urbanisation and Population Densitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Economic Growth Urbanisation and Population Densitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Economic Growth Urbanisation and Population Densitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Labour Productivity Growth in the Long Run: Japan, 1600–1909

Settsu

Takashima

2020

Aust Econ Hist Rev

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Gross Domestic Products

Kuboniwa

Shida

Tabata

2019

Russian Economic Development Over Three Centuries

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Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874

Bassino

Broadberry²,

Fukao

et al. 2019

Explorations in Economic History

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Despite being the first Asian economy to achieve modern economic growth, Japan has received relatively little attention in the Great Divergence debate. New estimates suggest that although the level of GDP per capita remained below the level of northwest Europe throughout the period 730-1874, Japan experienced positive trend growth before 1868, in contrast to the negative trend growth experienced in China and India, leading to a Little Divergence within Asia. However, growth in Japan remained slower than in northwest Europe so that Japan continued to fall behind until after the institutional reforms of the early Meiji period. The Great Divergence thus occurred as the most dynamic part of Asia fell behind the most dynamic part of Europe.JEL classification: N10, N30, N35, O10, O57

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Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector outputs in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600–1874

Cited by 18 publications

References 12 publications

Labour Productivity Growth in the Long Run: Japan, 1600–1909

Labour Productivity Growth in the Long Run: Japan, 1600–1909

Gross Domestic Products

Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874

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