Estimating trajectories of meteors: an observational Monte Carlo approach – II. Results

Vida, Denis; Brown, Peter; Campbell-Brown, M.; Wiegert, Paul; Gural, Peter S.

doi:10.1093/mnras/stz3338

Cited by 17 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…The average shower radiant location in one degree SL bins determined from the wavelet analysis of CMOR data is identified with black crosses. For GMN and CAMO, the formal radiant uncertainty was found using the method of Vida et al (2019b). Simulated radiants computed for particles ejected before and after 1450 BCE are plotted with cyan and dark blue circles, respectively.…”

Section: Individual Apparitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyid meteor showers

Egal

Wiegert

Brown

et al. 2020

A&A

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Context. We present a new numerical model of the η-Aquariid and Orionid meteor showers. Aims. The model investigates the origin, variability, and age of the η-Aquariid and Orionid apparitions from 1985 to the present day in order to forecast their activity over the next several decades. Methods. Through the numerical integration of millions of simulated meteoroids and a custom-made particle weighting scheme, we model the characteristics of every η-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modeled showers are calibrated using 35 yr of meteor observations, including the shower activity profiles and interannual variability. Results. Our model reproduces the general characteristics of the present-day η-Aquariids and part of the Orionid activity. Simulations suggest that the age of the η-Aquariids somewhat exceeds 5000 yr, while a greater fraction of the Orionids is composed of older material. The 1:6 mean motion resonance with Jupiter plays a major role in generating some (but not all) Halleyid stream outbursts. We find consistent evidence for a periodicity of 11.8 yr in both the observations and modeled maximum meteor rates for the Orionids. Weaker evidence of a 10.7 yr period in the peak activity for the η-Aquariids needs to be investigated with future meteor observations. The extension of our model to future years predicts no significant Orionid outbursts through 2050 and four significant η-Aquariid outbursts, in 2023, 2024, 2045, and 2046.

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Section: Individual Apparitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyid meteor showers

Egal

Wiegert

Brown

et al. 2020

A&A

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“…As described in Vida et al. (), this technique uses a Monte Carlo formalization of the LoS solver, estimating the mathematical fit uncertainty based on the variance of measurements from each station and implementing Earth rotation at all points. This produces a lower bound to the total uncertainty in the trajectory measurement.…”

Section: General Circumstances Of the Meteorite Fall And Overview Of mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The final best estimate of the initial velocity based on simultaneous fitting of the length versus time for all cameras including timing offsets using the method described in Vida et al. () is 15.83 ± 0.05 km s −1 . The uncertainty here represents the spread in speeds for different solutions where outlying points are removed, capturing an estimate of the systematic errors present.…”

Section: General Circumstances Of the Meteorite Fall And Overview Of mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Hamburg meteorite fall: Fireball trajectory, orbit, and dynamics

Brown

Vida

Moser

et al. 2019

Meteorit & Planetary Scien

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The Hamburg (H4) meteorite fell on 17 January 2018 at 01:08 UT approximately 10 km north of Ann Arbor, Michigan. More than two dozen fragments totaling under 1 kg were recovered, primarily from frozen lake surfaces. The fireball initial velocity was 15.83 ± 0.05 km s−1, based on four independent records showing the fireball above 50 km altitude. The radiant had a zenith angle of 66.14 ± 0.29° and an azimuth of 121.56 ± 1.2°. The resulting low inclination (<1°) Apollo‐type orbit has a large aphelion distance and Tisserand value relative to Jupiter (Tj) of ~3. Two major flares dominate the energy deposition profile, centered at 24.1 and 21.7 km altitude, respectively, under dynamic pressures of 5–7 MPa. The Geostationary Lightning Mapper on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite‐16 also detected the two main flares and their relative timing and peak flux agree with the video‐derived brightness profile. Our preferred total energy for the Hamburg fireball is 2–7 T TNT (8.4–28 × 109 J), which corresponds to a likely initial mass in the range of 60–225 kg or diameter between 0.3 and 0.5 m. Based on the model of Granvik et al. (2018), the meteorite originated in an escape route from the mid to outer asteroid belt. Hamburg is the 14th known H chondrite with an instrumentally derived preatmospheric orbit, half of which have small (<5°) inclinations making connection with (6) Hebe problematic. A definitive parent body consistent with all 14 known H chondrite orbits remains elusive.

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“…Spurný et al 2017), accurate trajectories and robust estimates of meteor radiant precision are essential. If a meteor is only observed from two stations (and in some cases three stations) with unfavorable geometry, the dynamics is a poor constraint on the trajectory and radiant errors can be as much as 1° (Vida et al 2020b). Figure 18 shows the percentage of the GMN trajectories observed from a given number of stations.…”

Section: Trajectory Precisionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Meteor Network -- Methodology and First Results

Vida,

Šegon,

Gural

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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The Global Meteor Network (GMN) utilizes highly sensitive low-cost CMOS video cameras which run open-source meteor detection software on Raspberry Pi computers. Currently, over 450 GMN cameras in 30 countries are deployed.The main goal of the network is to provide long-term characterization of the radiants, flux, and size distribution of annual meteor showers and outbursts in the optical meteor mass range. The rapid 24-hour publication cycle the orbital data will enhance the public situational awareness of the near-Earth meteoroid environment. The GMN also aims to increase the number of instrumentally observed meteorite falls and the transparency of data reduction methods.A novel astrometry calibration method is presented which allows decoupling of the camera pointing from the distortion, and is used for frequent pointing calibrations through the night. Using wide-field cameras (88°× 48°) with a limiting stellar magnitude of +6.0 ± 0.5 at 25 frames per second, over 220,000 precise meteoroid orbits were collected since December 2018 until June 2021.The median radiant precision of all computed trajectories is 0.47°, 0.32°for ∼ 20% of meteors which were observed from 4+ stations, a precision sufficient to measure physical dispersions of meteor showers. All non-daytime annual established meteor showers were observed during that time, including five outbursts. An analysis of a meteorite-dropping fireball is presented which showed visible wake, fragmentation details, and several discernible fragments. It had spatial trajectory fit errors of only ∼40 m, which translated into the estimated radiant and velocity errors of 3 arc minutes and tens of meters per second.

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Estimating trajectories of meteors: an observational Monte Carlo approach – II. Results

Cited by 17 publications

References 43 publications

Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyid meteor showers

Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyid meteor showers

The Hamburg meteorite fall: Fireball trajectory, orbit, and dynamics

The Global Meteor Network -- Methodology and First Results

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