Estimating tuberculosis burden and reporting in resource-limited countries: a capture-recapture study in Iraq

Abstract

We estimate 14 500 TB cases in Iraq in 2011, of which 31% (95%CI 24-42) were unreported. TB surveillance needs to be strengthened to reduce under-reporting.

Estimating tuberculosis burden and case detection in Pakistan

“…Capture-recapture methods involve cross-matching records from at least three incomplete data sources covering the same population to identify the number of cases common to paired lists. Then using information about overlapping and statistical methods we estimated the number of TB cases not identified in any of lists (57,58,(93)(94)(95)(96)(97)(98). Basic assumptions of capture-recapture analysis include: perfect record linkage; no migration/emigration/death (a "closed" population); cases are independent (99).…”

“…Notifications of TB cases provide a good proxy indication of TB incidence in countries that have both high-performance surveillance systems and complete access to quality health care. But where these criteria are not met, estimates of TB incidence can be obtained from an inventory study (55)(56)(57)(58). In 2013, 18% of the notification was contributed by private sector in Pakistan (6) and it is expected that we are missing many cases from private sectors since NTP has a very limited (less than 1 percent) coverage of private providers (47).…”

“…This approach has been used in studies to estimate TB in other resource-limited settings (58,93,96). As non-NTP public provider's data did not overlap with non-NTP private providers, this could not be used as a third source; non-NTP laboratories were therefore used as a third source and data from NTP, non-NTP private providers and non-NTP laboratories were used for final log linear analysis.…”

Beyond UHC: Monitoring Health and Social Protection Coverage in the Context of Tuberculosis Care and Prevention

“…Inventory studies to measure TB under-reporting are increasingly being used and will lead to better estimation of the total number of detected cases. When certain assumptions are met, capture-recapture modelling using data collected in inventory studies can also be used to estimate under-diagnosis and TB incidence [48],[49].…”

Breast Cancer or a Rear Diagnosis

“…Also, about 30% of TB cases are being underreported in the middle-east [1,2]. About 18% of tuberculosis cases only have extra-pulmonary manifestations.…”