Estimating uncertainty in interpreting seismic indicators

Houck, Richard T.

doi:10.1190/1.1438281

Cited by 24 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…For example, assume that we know the success ratio from exploration drilling and additional geological information pertinent to the classification. We can use the Bayesian theorem to update the prior information to refine our state of knowledge (Harbaugh et al, 1995;Doyen et al, 1996;Gao et al, 1997;Houck, 1999). This is expressed in terms of a conditional probability.…”

Section: Integration Of Geological Information With Exploration Outcomesmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Features such as acoustic wave travel time, amplitude, velocity, and frequency/phase all contain information pertinent to the spatial characterization of subsurface hydrocarbon resources. Seismic information allows the inference of reservoir parameters, including porosity (Doyen et al, 1996) and thickness (Wolf et al, 1994) from seismic amplitude, as well as the possibility for indirect inference of natural gas (Houck, 1999). Seismic data provides a spatial coverage and deep penetration not achieved by the direct and definitive techniques associated with the drilling, evaluating and completing of wells.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Characterizing the spatial distribution of an undiscovered hydrocarbon resource: the Keg River Reef play, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Chen

Osadetz

Gao

et al. 2000

Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology

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Specific maps constructed using integrated exploration history data, geological play characteristics and seismic prospecting activity are useful for both petroleum exploration and resource management. Geoscience data can be combined with exploration results to predict the possible locations and sizes of undiscovered pools in the Middle Devonian Keg River Reef play. The combination of all available information gives a better estimate of petroleum occurrence than any individual data set. A prior probability of hydrocarbon occurrence, estimated using exploration results, can be updated using key geological elements that reflect factors controlling pools locations and sizes. The analysis of geophysical survey information and the consideration of exhaustion of undiscovered potential by successful and unsuccessful exploration wells provides a realistic volumetric parameter that illustrates the space available for undiscovered pools. The construction of a favorability map, using a combination of the posterior probability map of hydrocarbon occurrence and the volumetric variable, produces a risk-weighted reservoir space that outlines the possible locations and sizes of undiscovered petroleum resources in a play. The favorability map, itself a useful tool for both hydrocarbon exploration and petroleum resource management, provides a meaningful method for describing the spatial distribution of undiscovered pools and fields predicted using other stochastic resource assessment methods. R~SUM~Des cartes sp6cifiques construites en utilisant des donn4es int4gr4es d'histoire d'exp[0ration, les caract4ristiques de cibles d'exploration g6ologique et l'activit4 de prospection sismique sont utiles pour l'exploration p6trolihre et la gestion de la ressource. Les donn6es g6oscientifiques peuvent 4tre combin4es avec les r6sultats d'exploration pour prOdire les localisations possibles et les sites de gisements non-d4couverts dans la cible d'exploration rdcifale de Keg River. La combinaison de toute l'information disponible donne une meilleure 6valuation de l'occurrence du p4trole que tout jeux de donn4es pris individuellement. La probabilitd prdalable de l'occurrence d'hydrocarbures, estim6e en utilisant les r6sultats d'exploration, peut Otre mis ~ jour en utilisant des facteurs g6ologique cl4s qui reflhtent les facteurs contr01ant la localisation et la dimension des gisements. Les analyses de l'information des lev4s g4ophysiques et la consid4ration de l'6puisement du potentiel non-d6couvert par des puits d'exploration couronn6s de succhs ou non, fournissent un paramhtre volum6trique r4aliste qui illustre l'espace disponible pour les gisements non-d6couverts. La construction de cartes de zone favorables en utilisant une combinaison de cartes de probabilit4 post4rieure d'occurrence d'hydrocarbures avec la variable volum4trique produisent un espace de r4servoir pond6r4 par le risque, qui dresse l'4bauche des localisations possibles et des dimensions des ressources en p6trole non-d6couvertes dans une cible d'exploration. La carte de favora...

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Section: Integration Of Geological Information With Exploration Outcomesmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Characterizing the spatial distribution of an undiscovered hydrocarbon resource: the Keg River Reef play, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Chen

Osadetz

Gao

et al. 2000

Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Increasingly, it is being recognized that AVO attributes should be accompanied by a measure of the probability of a particular outcome (i.e., hydrocarbons). Handling this problem from a rock physics and seismic modeling perspective is fairly straightforward (Castagna and Samake, 1998;Dey et al, 1999;Houck, 1999;Sengupta and Mavko, 1999). What is more difficult is quantifying the uncertainty in hydrocarbon detection due to variations in seismic data quality.…”

Section: Statistical Avo Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent advances in seismic lithologic analysis

Castagna

2001

GEOPHYSICS

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An objective of seismic analysis is to quantitatively extract lithology, porosity, and pore fluid content directly from seismic data. Rock physics provides the fundamental basis for seismic lithology determination. Beyond conventional poststack inversion, the most important seismic lithologic analysis tool is amplitude‐variation‐with‐offset (AVO) analysis. In this paper, I review recent progress in these two key aspects of seismic lithologic analysis.

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“…Uncertainty of interpreting each geological indicator and of correlating the results with physical parameters of a petroleum accumulation, such as interpreting seismic data (Houck, 1999) and rock physics (Mukerji et al, 2001), should be expressed explicitly. The evidence for, and indicators of, the existence of a petroleum accumulation come from various data sources and vary in degree of uncertainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrocarbon favourability mapping using fuzzy integration: western Sverdrup Basin, Canada

Chen

Osadetz

Embry

et al. 2002

Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology

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There are several difficulties in characterizing geological conditions favourable for hydrocarbon accumulation in a frontier region due to the availability and nature of geoscience data. First, geoscience information from various sources requires precise representation for spatial analysis. In many cases, the information to be represented is possibilistic or transient in nature, and it needs a mathematical tool that can adequately represent the information with a degree of possibility and/or uncertainty. Second, the uncertainty of interpreting each geological indicator and of correlating the results with physical parameters of a petroleum accumulation should be expressed explicitly. Third, the evidence and indicators of the existence of a petroleum accumulation come from various data sources, varying in degrees of uncertainty. These uncertainties should be integrated into a petroleum accumulation model so that exploration risk can be objectively evaluated in a subsequent economic analysis. We propose the use of a fuzzy integration method to tackle these problems. The method uses possibility theory to describe the satisfaction levels associated with each of the essentials for the formation of hydrocarbon deposits, such as the presence of reservoir, source rock, trap, top seal and preservation in a spatial domain. The uncertainties associated with data and evaluation are explicitly incorporated in the aggregate of the geological factors. The proposed method was applied to the Heiberg Group/Formation of western Sverdrup Basin in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago to evaluate the geological favourability for petroleum accumulation. The discovered oil and gas fields and the areas with computed high favourability display a good geographical correspondence, indicating that the proposed fuzzy integration method captures the essential spatial characteristics of petroleum accumulations in the western Sverdrup Basin. RÉSUMÉIl existe plusieurs obstacles à la caractérisation des conditions géologiques favorables à l'accumulation d'hydrocarbures dans une région frontière, dû à la disponibilité et la nature des données géoscientifiques. Premièrement, l'information géoscientifique de sources diverses requiert une représentation précise pour l'analyse spatiale. Dans plusieurs cas, l'information qui doit être représentée a trait aux possibilités ou est de nature transitoire, et nécessite un outil mathématique qui peut adéquatement représenter l'information avec un degré de possibilité et/ou d'incertitude. Deuxièmement, l'incertitude quant à l'interprétation de chacun des indicateurs géologiques et quant à la corrélation des résultats avec des paramètres physiques d'une accumulation de pétrole doit être exprimé explicitement. Troisièmement, les signes et les indicateurs de l'existence d'accumulations de pétrole proviennent d'une variété de sources de données montrant des degrés divers d'incertitude. Ces incertitudes devraient être intégrées dans un modèle d'accumulation de pétrole, pour que le risque d'exploration soit évalué objectiv...

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Estimating uncertainty in interpreting seismic indicators

Cited by 24 publications

References 3 publications

Characterizing the spatial distribution of an undiscovered hydrocarbon resource: the Keg River Reef play, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Characterizing the spatial distribution of an undiscovered hydrocarbon resource: the Keg River Reef play, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Recent advances in seismic lithologic analysis

Hydrocarbon favourability mapping using fuzzy integration: western Sverdrup Basin, Canada

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