Estimating Voter Registration Deadline Effects with Web Search Data

Abstract

Electoral rules have the potential to affect the size and composition of the voting public. Yet scholars disagree over whether requiring voters to register well in advance of Election Day reduces turnout. We present a new approach, using web searches for "voter registration" to measure interest in registering, both before and after registration deadlines for the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Many Americans sought information on "voter registration" even after the deadline in their state had passed. Combining web search data with evidence on the timing of registration for 80 million Americans, we model the relationship between search and registration. Extrapolating this relationship to the post-deadline period, we estimate that an additional 3-4 million Americans would have registered in time to vote, if deadlines had been extended to Election Day. We test our approach by predicting out of sample and with historical data. Web search data provide new opportunities to measure and study information-seeking behavior.

Measuring Ethnic Preferences in Bosnia and Herzegovina with Mobile Advertising

“…When adjusting the experimental stimuli, it will be possible to measure a variety of societal variables with a comparable design, as for example variance in issue salience [18, 19]. While there have been other approaches of measuring issue salience relying on modern communication technology such as page view statistics [20] or search engine queries [21, 22], mobile banners allow for a much higher level of geographic resolution.…”

Voter ID Laws Impact Turnout Through Registration

“…Political scientists often study the decision to register and vote with a cost-benefit framework, where voters will choose to cast a ballot when the benefits of voting outweigh the costs (Riker & Ordeshook, 1968). Empirical exam-ples for the calculus of voting include studies that show people are less likely to vote if their polling place moves or takes more time to access (Cantoni, 2020;Gimpel & Schuknecht, 2003;Haspel & Knotts, 2005), that people are more/less likely to register to vote when registering is made more/less convenient (Ansolabehere & Konisky, 2006;Holbein & Hillygus, 2016;Street, Murray, Blitzer, & Patel, 2015), and even that voters are less likely to vote if it rains on election day (Fraga, Hersh, et al, 2011;Fujiwara, Meng, & Vogl, 2016;Gomez, Hansford, & Krause, 2007;Hansford & Gomez, 2010).…”

Speaking truth in power: Scientific evidence as motivation for policy activism

“…Unfortunately, we do not know if subjects who clicked the Take Action button actually typed in comments to EPA. Due to the intentional nature of URL navigation, and the effectiveness with which it can be passively tracked, URL traffic represents a growing mechanism through which activism on political and public policy issues is measured, in both experimental and observational research (see, e.g., Ryan, 2012;Kronrod, Grinstein, & Wathieu, 2012;Street, Murray, Blitzer, & Patel, 2015;Ryan & Brader, 2015, Platt, Platt, Thiel, & Kardia, 2016. The e-mail platform used by the organization permits us to estimate the rate of mobilization for each e-mail condition.…”