Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

Samworth, Richard J.; Gowland, Rebecca

doi:10.1002/oa.867

Cited by 27 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Konigsberg and Herrmann (52) have used an unrestricted cumulative probit to model progression through the Suchey–Brooks stages, Boldsen et al. (19) have used a continuation ratio approach, and Samworth and Gowland (53) have suggested using a shifted exponential. All of these models add a level of complexity that seems unnecessary in the current context.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation and Evidence in Forensic Anthropology: Age‐at‐Death

Konigsberg

Herrmann

Wescott

et al. 2008

Journal of Forensic Sciences

180

188

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A great deal has previously been written about the use of skeletal morphological changes in estimating ages-at-death. This article looks in particular at the pubic symphysis, as it was historically one of the first regions to be described in the literature on age estimation. Despite the lengthy history, the value of the pubic symphysis in estimating ages and in providing evidence for putative identifications remains unclear. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the fact that rather ad hoc statistical methods have been applied in previous studies. This article presents a statistical analysis of a large data set (n = 1766) of pubic symphyseal scores from multiple contexts, including anatomical collections, war dead, and victims of genocide. The emphasis is in finding statistical methods that will have the correct "coverage.""Coverage" means that if a method has a stated coverage of 50%, then approximately 50% of the individuals in a particular pubic symphyseal stage should have ages that are between the stated age limits, and that approximately 25% should be below the bottom age limit and 25% above the top age limit. In a number of applications it is shown that if an appropriate prior age-at-death distribution is used, then "transition analysis" will provide accurate "coverages," while percentile methods, range methods, and means (+/-standard deviations) will not. Even in cases where there are significant differences in the mean ages-to-transition between populations, the effects on the stated age limits for particular "coverages" are minimal. As a consequence, more emphasis needs to be placed on collecting data on age changes in large samples, rather than focusing on the possibility of inter-population variation in rates of aging.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation and Evidence in Forensic Anthropology: Age‐at‐Death

Konigsberg

Herrmann

Wescott

et al. 2008

Journal of Forensic Sciences

180

188

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This is primarily because of two issues, firstly, difference between the statistical approaches used in different skeletal age estimation methods, and secondly, the difference between the data available from the original reference sample and the applicability of this reference standards to an individual not belonging to the reference group [48]. Therefore, in order to reduce bias related to statistical methodology, investigators are challenged to develop a standardized statistical analysis in performing age estimation [44].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods of Skeletal Age Estimation used by Forensic Anthropologists in Adults: A Review

Priya¹

2017

FRCIJ

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Reconstruction of biological profile of unknown individuals would be incomplete without age determination. Forensic anthropologists use skeletal indicators involved in processes of bone resorption, deposition and remodelling which are time-related to estimate age of the individual. Estimating age in adults remains a challenging task to the forensic anthropologists because of the complexity and individual variations seen in the aging process and the gamut of environmental factors influencing the same. Age provided by anthropologists is determined as age range rather than a specific age. It has been noticed that age range determined for younger individuals is narrower than for older individuals. This paper reviews most commonly used skeletal age estimation methods by forensic anthropologists.

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“…The goal of combining these age estimates is to obtain narrower confidence intervals and a more precise mean age than provided by a single age marker. Different statistical approaches to combine multiple age estimators have been proposed, many of the most recent ones relying on applications of Bayes’ theorem ([1] and references therein). However, Samworth and Gowland (1) propose a regression approach, providing two‐way “look‐up” tables for age‐at‐death prediction based on the auricular surface and pubic symphysis, alone and combined.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Different statistical approaches to combine multiple age estimators have been proposed, many of the most recent ones relying on applications of Bayes’ theorem ([1] and references therein). However, Samworth and Gowland (1) propose a regression approach, providing two‐way “look‐up” tables for age‐at‐death prediction based on the auricular surface and pubic symphysis, alone and combined. Data in these tables were developed based on two European samples (Spitalfields, U.K. and Coimbra, Portugal).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aim of the present study is to test the Samworth and Gowland (1) “look‐up” tables in three independent American contemporary “forensic” samples. The method is evaluated using (1) the average AME and bias of the age predictions and (2) the overall number of correctly classified individuals within the narrow (68%) and wide (90%) prediction intervals provided in the “look‐up” tables.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Utility of the Samworth and Gowland Age‐at‐Death “Look‐up” Tables in Forensic Anthropology*

Passalacqua

2010

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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Accurate age-at-death estimates are crucial to forensic anthropologists when onstructing biological profiles aimed at narrowing a missing-persons list and to allow for timely and efficient identification of an unknown victim. The present contribution evaluates the utility of three new age-at-death estimation techniques recently proposed by Samworth and Gowland (2007). Results indicate that, in the samples under study, the Samworth and Gowland estimates from the pubic symphysis and auricular surface perform similar to alternate phase methods. The combined method does not appear to further enhance either the precision or the accuracy of the single pubic symphysis age-at-death estimate. In conclusion, these new methods seem to be more robust to distribution deviations than originally proposed by Samworth and Gowland (2007). They are therefore suitable for immediate and reliable forensic usage in the United States and worthy of further research for their use in North American forensic contexts.

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Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death: statistical assumptions and applications

Cited by 27 publications

References 15 publications

Estimation and Evidence in Forensic Anthropology: Age‐at‐Death

Estimation and Evidence in Forensic Anthropology: Age‐at‐Death

Methods of Skeletal Age Estimation used by Forensic Anthropologists in Adults: A Review

The Utility of the Samworth and Gowland Age‐at‐Death “Look‐up” Tables in Forensic Anthropology*

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