Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes - Monograph Series 2006
DOI: 10.1214/074921706000000941
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Estimation of AR and ARMA models by stochastic complexity

Abstract: In this paper the stochastic complexity criterion is applied to estimation of the order in AR and ARMA models. The power of the criterion for short strings is illustrated by simulations. It requires an integral of the square root of Fisher information, which is done by Monte Carlo technique. The stochastic complexity, which is the negative logarithm of the Normalized Maximum Likelihood universal density function, is given. Also, exact asymptotic formulas for the Fisher information matrix are derived.

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Cited by 10 publications
(5 citation statements)
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“…However, the calculation of the 6 complexity of the model class involves Monte-Carlo integration, which is not a good candidate for scalability. Moreover, we found it difficult to estimate the values above AR order 6, an observation already presented in [13]. There is an alternative encoding,whic histobebasedontheC onditional Normalised Maximum-Likelihood code of [19] for generalisedG a u s s i a nr e g r e s s i o nf a m i l i e sf o rA R models.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 70%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…However, the calculation of the 6 complexity of the model class involves Monte-Carlo integration, which is not a good candidate for scalability. Moreover, we found it difficult to estimate the values above AR order 6, an observation already presented in [13]. There is an alternative encoding,whic histobebasedontheC onditional Normalised Maximum-Likelihood code of [19] for generalisedG a u s s i a nr e g r e s s i o nf a m i l i e sf o rA R models.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 70%
“…The dimensionality of the NI algorithm with bilevel optimisation is the same, however with effectively only two different values. The dimensionality of the problem for CMA-ES with bilevel optimisation depends on the number of break points explored on the optimisation path (it is at most [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20].…”
Section: Technical Detailsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The time series y ( t ) can be regressed, in a similar manner as described in Ref. 12, using the sinusoidal regression model with Gaussian uncertainty; that is,…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Among the few forms are ridge regression, seasonality regression analysis, Fourier regression, trigonometric series regression analysis, and smoothing splines regression [11][12][13][14]. All these mentioned forms are for demonstrating the dummy variables for estimation of seasonal effects in a time series, to penalize estimators in situation where the number of parameters estimated is strictly greater than the sample size, and to free the distributional property of the observations in non-parametric settings [15][16][17].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%