Estimation of Extreme Value and Duration of Storm Surge in Bays by Using Stochastic Typhoon Model

Kawai, Hiroki; Hashimoto, Noriaki; Matsuura, Kuniaki

doi:10.2208/proce1989.54.301

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…6. For Osaka city: Kawai et al (2008), Japan River Organisation, Kadoya et al (1993), MLIT website (Ministry of Land, Industry and Transport), ICHARM. 7.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

2012

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Worldwide, there is a need to enhance our understanding of vulnerability and to develop methodologies and tools to assess vulnerability. One of the most important goals of assessing coastal flood vulnerability, in particular, is to create a readily understandable link between the theoretical concepts of flood vulnerability and the day-to-day decision-making process and to encapsulate this link in an easily accessible tool. This article focuses on developing a Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding. It is applied to nine cities around the world, each with different kinds of exposure. With the aid of this index, it is demonstrated which cities are most vulnerable to coastal flooding with regard to the system's components, that is, hydro-geological, socio-economic and politico-administrative. The index gives a number from 0 to 1, indicating comparatively low or high coastal flood vulnerability, which shows which cities are most in need of further, more detailed investigation for decision-makers. Once its use to compare the vulnerability of a range of cities under current conditions has been demonstrated, it is used to study the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of these cities over a longer timescale. The results show that CCFVI provides a means of obtaining a broad overview of flood vulnerability and the effect of possible adaptation options. This, in turn, will allow for the direction of resources to more in-depth investigation of the most promising strategies.

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“…6. For Osaka city: Kawai et al (2008), Japan River Organisation, Kadoya et al (1993), MLIT website (Ministry of Land, Industry and Transport), ICHARM. 7.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

2012

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“…Mori, 2012). There are several studies to project regional future storm surges accompanying with the change of typhoon characteristics (e.g., Kawai et al, 2007Kawai et al, , 2009Yasuda et al, 2009).…”

Section: Storm Surgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stability analysis of composite breakwater with wave-dissipating blocks considering increase in sea levels, surges and waves due to climate change

Mase

Tsujio²,

Yasuda

et al. 2013

Ocean Engineering

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Settlement of wave-dissipating blocks in front of a caisson is caused by displacement and breakage of blocks directly by wave action and also by sliding of the caisson by wave force. The settlement of blocks, caisson sliding and wave pressure are mutually correlated. The present study has developed a stability analysis method for a composite breakwater with wave-dissipating blocks under the circumstances of climate change effect as seen in sea level rise and increase in storm surges and waves. It is found that the changes of expected caisson sliding distance and necessary caisson width, determined from the allowable excess probabilities for three prescribed sliding distances, against the weight of wave-dissipating block have a tendency to be maximum at certain block weight when repairing of damaged blocks is not done; on the other hand, if repairing is done every time after reaching 5 % damage level of total section, the changes of caisson sliding distance and necessary caisson width against the block weight show monotonous decrease. The effects of climate change on the sliding distance and necessary width are found to make those values larger 10 ~ 60 % than those calculated by constant external forces given from the present climate conditions.

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“…Fig. 3 shows an example of the recent research outputs (Kawai et al 2008a(Kawai et al , 2008b. The storm surge by the standard typhoon and its return period is 3m and 1,500 years respectively at Tokyo, 3.5m and 150 years at Nagoya, and then 3m and 100 years at Osaka.…”

Section: Recent Research With Stochastic Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4 shows the wind field with p c =940hPa, r 0 =75km, V T =70km/hr where the maximum wind speed appears to the southeast from the typhoon center. This model is very popular in practical works in Japan and was often used in previous stochastic typhoon and storm surge simulations (Kawai et al 2006(Kawai et al , 2007(Kawai et al , 2008a(Kawai et al , 2008b). The second model (hereinafter Typ2) gives the solution of the balance equation of typhoon forwarding effect as well as the pressure gradient force, the Coriolis force, and the centrifugal force.…”

Section: Typhoon Wind Field Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to recent research on stochastic simulation, the return period of the storm surge of the current standard typhoon is nearly 100 years or more at three major bays, Tokyo Bay, Ise Bay, and Osaka Bay (Kawai et al 2008a(Kawai et al , 2008b. The drag coefficient plays a very important role in the storm surge simulation for an intense typhoon having a high wind speed such as more than 30m/s.…”

Section: Comparison By Sea Surface Drag Coefficientmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty of Extreme Storm Surge Estimation by High Wind Sea Surface Drag Coefficient and Future Typhoon Change

Kawai

Hashimoto

Yamashiro

et al. 2011

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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Japan has been constructing long coastal defense since the storm surge disaster with a loss of 5,000 lives by Typhoon Vera in 1959. The defense is designed for the storm water level including the storm surge of the standard typhoon based on Typhoon Vera. Stochastic typhoon model, simulating various typhoon track and intensity with Monte Carlo method, is one of useful tools to estimate the return period. According to recent research output the return period of the storm surge of the standard typhoon is near 100 years or more at three major bays in Japan. But there is uncer-tainty by some of parameters and models in the stochastic simulation. Sea surface drag coefficient under high wind speed and future change in typhoon intensity and track are critical to extreme values of the storm surges.

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Estimation of Extreme Value and Duration of Storm Surge in Bays by Using Stochastic Typhoon Model

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts

Stability analysis of composite breakwater with wave-dissipating blocks considering increase in sea levels, surges and waves due to climate change

Uncertainty of Extreme Storm Surge Estimation by High Wind Sea Surface Drag Coefficient and Future Typhoon Change

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