Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis

Dong, Yuhua; Yu, Dawei

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2004.12.003

Cited by 324 publications

(142 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The fuzzy logic principles are also applicable while evaluating estate houses and engineering constructions for potential hazard (Hao-Tien Liu & Yieh-lin Tsai, 2012;Malinowska, 2011;Rusek, 2009). In water network problems they are mainly used for evaluating damage hazard (Bonvicini et al, 1998;Dong Yuhua & Yu Datao, 2005;Esayed, 2009;Han & Weng, 2011;Markowski & Mannan, 2009;Shahriar et al, 2012;Xingquan Liu et al, 2011). The results of over 30 year research have proved that in many engineering situations application of fuzzy models enables integrate and inference form ambiguity information.…”

Section: Engineering Application Of Fuzzy Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the Parameters Affecting the Water Pipelines on the Mining Terrains with A Use of An Adaptive Fuzzy System

Malinowska¹,

Hejmanowski²,

Rusek³

2016

Archives of Mining Sciences

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The research presented in this paper is basically focused on two objectives. Firstly, the selection of parameters affecting the water supply network damage. The causes of failures were selected from a population of tens of breakdown cases and then classified in view of their importance. Secondly, attention was paid to the selection of the most suitable linguistic model which could be commonly used for selecting factors which generate failures. Finally a Mamdani-based model could be worked out as a system possessing best generalization qualities. This model can create bases for an adaptative decision system which can show the type of water supply-sewage network, depending on continuous surface strains due to the mining activity.

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Section: Engineering Application Of Fuzzy Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the Parameters Affecting the Water Pipelines on the Mining Terrains with A Use of An Adaptive Fuzzy System

Malinowska¹,

Hejmanowski²,

Rusek³

2016

Archives of Mining Sciences

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“…Once the probabilities for all basic events and MCSs are estimated, the top event probability by minimal cutsets approach is then calculated by using either equation 4.1 (Yuhua et al, 2005) or equation 4.2 (Hauptmanns, 1980).…”

Section: Treementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to a low probability of occurrence, the first part of the equation 4.1 is generally used to calculate the top event probability of a tree (Yuhua et al, 2005). Equation 4.1 gives exact estimation of top event probability if the fault tree is large and consists of a large number of cutsets.…”

Section: Treementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In conventional Ff A, failure probability of the top event is calculated by considering failure probability data of basic components of a system to be exact values (Wu, 2004;Yuhua et al, 2005). However, in practice, ambiguity of the system and component behavior, working environment of a system, as well as lack of sufficient statistical inference raise the difficulties during estimation of exact failure probability of basic components (Singer, 1990;Liang et al, 1993;Ying et al, 1998;Wu, 2004;Yuhua et al, 2005).…”

Section: Fuzzy Set Theory Fundamentals and Its Application To Ftamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, in practice, ambiguity of the system and component behavior, working environment of a system, as well as lack of sufficient statistical inference raise the difficulties during estimation of exact failure probability of basic components (Singer, 1990;Liang et al, 1993;Ying et al, 1998;Wu, 2004;Yuhua et al, 2005). In order to avoid such uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment, Lai et al (1988) and Singer (1990) introduced the fuzzy set theory to safety and reliability problems.…”

Section: Fuzzy Set Theory Fundamentals and Its Application To Ftamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Methodology for computer aided fuzzy fault tree analysis

Ferdous

Khan

Veitch

et al. 2009

Process Safety and Environmental Protection

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Efficient evaluation of small failure probability in high‐dimensional groundwater contaminant transport modeling via a two‐stage Monte Carlo method

Zhang

Lin

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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In decision‐making for groundwater management and contamination remediation, it is important to accurately evaluate the probability of the occurrence of a failure event. For small failure probability analysis, a large number of model evaluations are needed in the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, which is impractical for CPU‐demanding models. One approach to alleviate the computational cost caused by the model evaluations is to construct a computationally inexpensive surrogate model instead. However, using a surrogate approximation can cause an extra error in the failure probability analysis. Moreover, constructing accurate surrogates is challenging for high‐dimensional models, i.e., models containing many uncertain input parameters. To address these issues, we propose an efficient two‐stage MC approach for small failure probability analysis in high‐dimensional groundwater contaminant transport modeling. In the first stage, a low‐dimensional representation of the original high‐dimensional model is sought with Karhunen‐Loève expansion and sliced inverse regression jointly, which allows for the easy construction of a surrogate with polynomial chaos expansion. Then a surrogate‐based MC simulation is implemented. In the second stage, the small number of samples that are close to the failure boundary are re‐evaluated with the original model, which corrects the bias introduced by the surrogate approximation. The proposed approach is tested with a numerical case study and is shown to be 100 times faster than the traditional MC approach in achieving the same level of estimation accuracy.

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Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis

Cited by 324 publications

References 10 publications

Estimation of the Parameters Affecting the Water Pipelines on the Mining Terrains with A Use of An Adaptive Fuzzy System

Estimation of the Parameters Affecting the Water Pipelines on the Mining Terrains with A Use of An Adaptive Fuzzy System

Methodology for computer aided fuzzy fault tree analysis

Efficient evaluation of small failure probability in high‐dimensional groundwater contaminant transport modeling via a two‐stage Monte Carlo method

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