Estimation of maximum annual discharges by frequency analysis with four probability distributions in case of non-homogeneous time series (Kazani karst spring in Republic of Macedonia)

Радевски, Иван; Gorin, Svemir; Dimitrovska, Olgica; Milevski, Ivica; Apostolovska-Toshevska, Biljana; Talevska, Milena; Zlatanoski, Vladimir

doi:10.3986/ac.v45i3.1544

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…This condition matches the natural rainfall trend, which is typical of mountain aquifers. The simulated distribution, which is shown in Figure 8 for minimal spring discharge, is demanded by a Weibull cumulative probability function; this function is widely used to explain the distribution of natural events [26][27][28] because it can be associated with cumulative normal or non-normal distribution of many natural parameters. Specifically, we use the two-parameters Weibull function as follows:…”

Section: Spring Recharge Area Identification By Using Isotope-driven mentioning

confidence: 99%

Karst Spring Recharge Areas and Discharge Relationship by Oxygen-18 and Deuterium Isotopes Analyses: A Case Study in Southern Latium Region, Italy

et al. 2020

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Karst aquifer recharge areas are usually difficult to identify because of the complexity of these aquifers’ characteristics. On the other hand, their identification is very important in the aim of protecting the groundwater resources that these aquifers host. Regarding this topic, this paper presents an approach aimed at identifying karst aquifer recharge areas by the application of oxygen-18 and deuterium isotopes composition of groundwater coupled with hydrological features. Oxygen-18 and deuterium isotope composition of Capodacqua di Spigno Spring, in the South of the Latium Region, has been applied with rainfall and discharge values related to the feeding aquifer of this spring. As δ18O and δ2H values of groundwater samples are natural tracers of the recharge area’s elevation, we propose a model, based on the distribution of the basin surfaces involved as recharge areas, in relation to elevations. The model estimates, for any discharge value, the percentage of the topographic area involved in the aquifer recharge. The setting up of this simulated distribution is supported by a Weibull cumulative probability function. The results show that the measured discharges increase as larger areas with lower elevations are involved in the recharge process.

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Section: Spring Recharge Area Identification By Using Isotope-driven mentioning

confidence: 99%

Karst Spring Recharge Areas and Discharge Relationship by Oxygen-18 and Deuterium Isotopes Analyses: A Case Study in Southern Latium Region, Italy

et al. 2020

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“…Many studies (Ahmad et al 1988;Hosking and Wallis 1997;Yürekli et al 2005;Vicente-Serrano et al 2010;Vicente-Serrano et al 2012;Radevski et al 2016;Nguyen et al 2017;Volpi et al 2019) have focused on application of frequency analysis to hydro-meteorological series, but most of them have concerned precipitation and stream flow series. Only a few works pertain to karst spring discharge series and, in particular, to the quantitative evaluation of the performance of different probability distribution functions in modelling discharge series, where both minima (low-discharge) and maxima (high-discharge) have great importance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term trends in karst spring discharge and relation to climate factors and changes

et al. 2020

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Long karst spring discharge series were analyzed to determine trends, fluctuations and relationship to climate. The data came from two karst aquifers, Picentini and Matese massifs in southern Italy, and in some cases cover more than 100 years of records. The long-term hydrological series of these springs aid the understanding of water-resource availability variations under climate change, given the systematic discharge records and the absence of human-made alteration of the natural conditions in most of the spring catchments. The performances of five three-parameter probability distribution functions (generalized logistic, lognormal, Pearson type III, generalized extreme values and Weibull) for frequency analysis of the hydrological series were investigated, and evaluated also for the fit of extreme values of both tails of the distributions. The Weibull distribution was chosen in most cases. Then, each spring discharge value was transformed into the Z value of the standard normal distribution, which allows a statistical comparison between different spring discharge series and other climate variables. In particular, the relationship between the spring discharge, rainfall, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature series were investigated, also by linear correlations and trend detection tests. The analyses proved a general decrease of spring discharge over the last few decades. This decrease does not seem to depend only on precipitation change; an important role was played by the temperature increase. The discharge trends of these karst springs may provide a robust climate indicator of a wide area of southern Italy, as well as of a large sector of the Mediterranean area.

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“…Hydric risks in large river basins are some of the most frequent threats associated with natural hazards [1]. In the first place, for the optimal management of these situations, it is required to realize the detailed cartographic materials, which will highlight the areas that are most vulnerable to the risk phenomena [2,3]. These thematic maps and detailed plans facilitate the development of specific strategies and measures that can lower the impact of natural events [4,5].The spacing of the territories affected by the overflowing waters during floods is highly important in the plans of regional and local improvement of the territory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mapping of Floodplains With Four Probabilities of Exceeding and the Highlighting of Floodable Land Areas for the Bistrita Valley Middle Mountain Area, Between the Broșteni and Poiana Teiului Localities

Ghindaoanu¹,

Hutanu²,

Paveluc³

et al. 2019

AGB

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An ample flood risk mapping campaign has been carried out at a national level, at the suggestion of the European Union. Considering the fact that the project has been realized at a 1:25,000 scale and that 1,549 rivers were mapped, totalling to approximately 33.478 km of water course length, ANAR shows that the presented maps are of general interest, with an informative purpose that can help promote investing, (land) design, and more., etc. It is also noted that once every 6 years or whenever it is needed, the hazard maps and floodplains must be remade. Therefore, the present study aims to create new floodplains with the topographic numerical model of the current terrain, with a better resolution and a clearer emphasis on morphological details. The vector layers (the river valley, the minor bed, the major bed, the cross-sectional profiles and the land usage) required for flood simulations were created using the LIDAR topographic support (5 m pixel resolution) and satellite imagery from 2012. The programs that were used to create the vector layers and to simulate the flooding are: ArcGIS, Hec-Ras and Hec-Georas. The flooding simulation was realized for four occurrence probabilities: 1%, 2%, 5%, and 10%. To calculate the probabilities and to evaluate the hydrological regime of the Bistrita River, the flows and the daily levels from two stations located on the analysed river sector (upstream-Broșteni, the middle of the sector-Frumosu) were obtained from the Siret River Basin Administration, from the year 1968 until 2016. As a result of the intersection of the floodplains obtained with the land usage data, the land use categories that may be affected by floods were observed. The arable land, situated in the proximity of the minor river bed, in the slope sector favouring the practice of agriculture, represents the most vulnerable area for all the probabilities of exceeding. The total number of constructions that can be affected at a 1% probability is of 4.544, and at a 10% probability of 2.376. By comparing the intersected surfaces of the flood bands obtained from the ABA Siret with the current flood bands, significant differences can be observed regarding the number of affected constructions as well as regarding the other categories of use. For a more accurate estimation of the risk degree and of the possible damages caused by flooding, it was necessary to study in detail all the factors involved in the hydrological risk phenomenon. In order to best manage the emergencies arising because of the hydro-geomorphological phenomena, it is necessary to map out the floodplains after any major hydrological event that contributes to the changing of the current parameters.

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Estimation of maximum annual discharges by frequency analysis with four probability distributions in case of non-homogeneous time series (Kazani karst spring in Republic of Macedonia)

Cited by 7 publications

References 25 publications

Karst Spring Recharge Areas and Discharge Relationship by Oxygen-18 and Deuterium Isotopes Analyses: A Case Study in Southern Latium Region, Italy

Karst Spring Recharge Areas and Discharge Relationship by Oxygen-18 and Deuterium Isotopes Analyses: A Case Study in Southern Latium Region, Italy

Long-term trends in karst spring discharge and relation to climate factors and changes

The Mapping of Floodplains With Four Probabilities of Exceeding and the Highlighting of Floodable Land Areas for the Bistrita Valley Middle Mountain Area, Between the Broșteni and Poiana Teiului Localities

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