Estimation of plume distribution for carbon sequestration using parameter estimation with limited monitoring data

Abstract

[1] This study develops and evaluates an integrated methodology including parameter zonation, efficient global optimization, and multiple aquifer realizations that gives a useful forecast of the pressure distribution and the CO 2 plume migration through a heterogeneous storage formation, over time, using only a few monitoring locations in a feasibly short amount of computing time, while dealing with data error. Geological characteristics of the example application are similar to a CO 2 sequestration pilot test conducted in a fluvialdeltaic geological setting. In the example, the CO 2 injection problem is simulated with the TOUGH2 code, a numerical simulator for multiphase (gas and aqueous), multicomponent flow and transport. The inverse problem is difficult because the GCS optimization estimation problem has multiple local minima and the simulation is computationally expensive. The efficient surrogate response surface global optimization algorithm ''Stochastic RBF'' (stochastic radial basis function) is used to calibrate the model parameters. Results are averaged over three saline aquifer realizations. In the third numerical experiment using only pressure data, the CO 2 plume could be determined with an average correlation coefficient compared to the actual plume of up to R 2 ¼ 0.916 (for current plume at t ¼ 1.5 years) and average R 2 ¼ 0.80 (for forecasted plume estimated at t ¼ 7.5 years years, using only the first 1.5 years of monitoring data). Adding gas saturation data improved the 6 year forecast somewhat (increasing average R 2 ¼ 0.85) but it was not significantly helpful in estimating the current plume. Both our inverse methodology and findings can be broadly applicable to GCS in heterogeneous sedimentary formations.Citation: Espinet, A., C. Shoemaker, and C. Doughty (2013), Estimation of Plume distribution for carbon sequestration using parameter estimation with limited monitoring data, Water Resour. Res., 49,

Multi objective optimization of computationally expensive multi-modal functions with RBF surrogates and multi-rule selection

“…For example, analysis of a carbon sequestration monitoring problem required global optimization with seven decisions of a nonlinear, multiphase flow transient PDF model that took over 2 hours per simulation [11]. So even 100 evaluations for a problem like this is probably more evaluations than are feasible.…”

Integrated reservoir modeling at the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project

“…Further, in many practical applications model calibration is achieved through a sequential series of processes and informed estimates which are difficult to emulate in a single optimization process. The literature for CO 2 sequestration contains many examples of history matching of monitoring data for model calibration . However, few of the published cases provide details of the history matching method used.…”

“…Th e literature for CO 2 sequestration contains many examples of history matching of monitoring data for model calibration. [20][21][22][23][24][25] However, few of the published cases provide details of the history matching method used. Many suggest manual update and those using numerical optimization use very small models compared to the 3 million cell IBDP model.…”

Response surface modeling of CO2dynamic storage efficiency factor in high permeability thick sandstones

“…studied the CO 2 migration and pressure evolution in deep saline aquifers and stressed the need for accounting for pressure effects away from the injection zones. Espinet et al . stressed the need to have a good understanding of permeability distribution to account for heterogeneity in the medium.…”

“…Birkholzer et al 14 studied the CO 2 migration and pressure evolution in deep saline aquifers and stressed the need for accounting for pressure effects away from the injection zones. Espinet et al 15 stressed the need to have a good understanding of permeability distribution to account for heterogeneity in the medium. Zhou et al 16 studied the pressure buildup in laterally closed or semiclosed CO 2 storage zones and developed a simple quick-assessment tool to assess the pressure buildup and CO 2 storage capacity in these zones.…”