Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis

Murray, Christopher J L; Lopez, Alan D; Chin, Brian; Feehan, Dennis M.; Hill, Kenneth

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(06)69895-4

Cited by 526 publications

(619 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The deadly nature of the H1N1 virus that caused the pandemic, the unique epidemiological features of the pandemic, and the pathophysiology of deaths caused by this virus set this pandemic apart from its successors and its predecessors alike (1). Although there is evidence of substantial geographic variation in mortality rates across countries (2) and even within cities (3), studies of the 1918 pandemic in the United States (4,5), the United Kingdom (6, 7), Europe (8), South America (9-11), and Asia (12,13) focus mainly on differences in onset of the pandemic, age-specific mortality, and transmission of the virus across large geographic regions. Few studies have explored the effects of sociodemographic factors on differential mortality during the 1918 pandemic, despite the known impacts of social inequalities on disease progression and outcomes through decreased access to healthcare, overcrowding, comorbidities associated with lower resources, lower nutritional status, and a poor understanding of control measures because of lack of education (14)(15)(16)(17).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Disparities in influenza mortality and transmission related to sociodemographic factors within Chicago in the pandemic of 1918

Grantz

Rane

Salje

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

148

164

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Social factors have been shown to create differential burden of influenza across different geographic areas. We explored the relationship between potential aggregate-level social determinants and mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chicago using a historical dataset of 7,971 influenza and pneumonia deaths. Census tract-level social factors, including rates of illiteracy, homeownership, population, and unemployment, were assessed as predictors of pandemic mortality in Chicago. Poisson models fit with generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to estimate the association between social factors and the risk of influenza and pneumonia mortality. The Poisson model showed that influenza and pneumonia mortality increased, on average, by 32.2% for every 10% increase in illiteracy rate adjusted for population density, homeownership, unemployment, and age. We also found a significant association between transmissibility and population density, illiteracy, and unemployment but not homeownership. Lastly, analysis of the point locations of reported influenza and pneumonia deaths revealed fine-scale spatiotemporal clustering. This study shows that living in census tracts with higher illiteracy rates increased the risk of influenza and pneumonia mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chicago. Our observation that disparities in structural determinants of neighborhood-level health lead to disparities in influenza incidence in this pandemic suggests that disparities and their determinants should remain targets of research and control in future pandemics.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Disparities in influenza mortality and transmission related to sociodemographic factors within Chicago in the pandemic of 1918

Grantz

Rane

Salje

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

148

164

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“…Nations with manufacturing facilities distributed vaccines domestically before exporting them; some wealthy nations without vaccine-manufacturing capacity paid substantial sums to reserve the remaining supply. Meanwhile, robust modelling studies indicated that more than 90% of the deaths from a potential influenza pandemic would probably occur in the world's poorest countries 8 .…”

Section: More Engagementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy: Security spending must cover disease outbreaks

Yamada¹,

Ogawa

Freire

2016

Nature

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“…Although numerous epidemics with significant morbidity and mortality occurred from the 16 th century it is generally agreed that the first recorded outbreak meeting pandemic criteria is that of Mortality varied across countries with sparing attributed to affluence 15 and delayed introduction achieved by maritime quarantine 16 . Australia, where introduction was delayed until March 1919, had one of the lowest mortality rates, particularly in Tasmania 16 .…”

Section: Early History Of Influenzamentioning

confidence: 99%