Estimation of probabilistic flood inundation maps for an extreme event: Pánuco River, México

Abstract

This investigation evaluates the effects of hydrological uncertainty in the results of flood extent estimates during the incidence of a tropical storm. For this, the methodology is comprised of field measurements, elevation data, a distributed hydrological model and a standard two‐dimensional numerical model. Uncertainty is considered in the distributed hydrological model through the estimation of possible hydrographs from precipitation data registered during the incidence of an extreme event. The characterisation of the run‐off by multiple possibilities opens the door to a probabilistic estimation of flood maps, enabling the consideration of hydrological uncertainties and their propagation to an estimated flood extension. It is shown that during the incidence of the tropical storm Arlene, the estimated flooded area is similar to what was registered by satellite imagery. Although the methodology does not consider all the uncertainties that may be involved in the determination of a flooded area, it is reflected that it favours the preventive action in the generation of flood management strategies. The selected approach is a first iteration in the production of a fully quantified approach to the analysis of flood risk, especially where there are doubts about how the catchment responds to a given extreme precipitation event.

Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

“…This procedure was preferred over a GLUE (generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation) analysis (e.g. Pedrozo-Acuña et al, 2015), as the investigation was aimed to understand the propagation of uncertainty along the model chain.…”

“…The model has been previously applied with success in other catchments in Mexico (e.g. Pedrozo-Acuña et al, 2014b).…”

“…In September 2013, severe floods were registered in Mexico as a result of the exceptional simultaneous incidence of two tropical storms, culminating in serious damage and widespread persistent flooding (Pedrozo-Acuña et al, 2014a). This unprecedented event is part of a recent set of extreme flood events over the last decade caused by record-breaking precipitation amounts across central Europe (Becker and Grünewald, 2003), the UK (Slingo et al, 2014), Pakistan (Webster et al, 2011), Australia (Ven den Honert and McAneney, 2011), the northeastern USA (WMO, 2011), Japan (WMO, 2011) and Korea (WMO, 2011).…”

“…One key piece of information in preventing and reducing losses is given by reliable flood inundation maps that enable the dissemination of flood risk to the society and decision makers (Pedrozo-Acuña et al, 2015). Traditionally, this task requires the estimation of different return periods for discharge (Ward et al, 2011) and their propagation to the floodplain by means of a hydrodynamic model.…”

Evaluación de la marea de tormenta en sitios con escasez de datos: río Pánuco, México

“…La cuenca del río Pánuco corresponde a la cuarta más grande del país, con una superficie de 80.600 Km 2 y un escurrimiento medio anual de 13.500 millones de m 3 . Año con año, durante la temporada de lluvias (julio-noviembre) esta región se ve afectada por eventos de lluvias intensas que producen inundaciones, muchas de ellas resultado de la marea de tormenta y lluvias muy intensas asociadas a la incidencia de depresiones y ciclones tropicales [29,30]. A pesar de la importancia económica de la zona, existe una importante escasez de datos en la región y una necesidad clara de cuantificar de mejor manera los forzamientos climáticos.…”