Estimation of Probable Health Losses in Biological Attack With Non-Contagious Agents, by Mathematical Epidemiology

Abstract

In the case of attack with CBRN Weapons of Mass Destruction, the use of biological warfare agents is likely to amplify the effect on the living force, in order to infect, lethal or nonlethal, as many enemy as possible. The military medical service must be able to prevent, diagnose, treat and recover all affected military and the civilian population in the area. Health losses must be recovered in their entirety. Mathematical modeling of the epidemic induced by biological attack is useful for planning the forces and means of the military medical service, for medical planning the offensive or defensive operation, logistics and human resources needed for medical support and replacement. The estimates resulting from the calculations according to the formulas recommended in the specific NATO documents allow the optimization of the medical and non-medical countermeasures for the liquidation of the consequences of the biological attack.