Estimation of Survival in Patients with Glioblastoma Using an Online Calculator at a Tertiary-Level Hospital in Mexico

Abstract

BackgroundThe mean survival duration of patients with glioblastoma after diagnosis is 15 months (14-21 months), while progression-free survival is 10 months (+/-one month). Although there are well-defined overall survival statistics for glioblastoma, individual survival prediction remains a challenge. Therefore, there is a need to validate an accessible and cost-effective prognostic tool to provide valuable data for decisionmaking. This study aims to calculate the mean survival of patients with glioblastoma at a tertiary-level hospital in Mexico using the online glioblastoma survival calculator developed by researchers at Harvard Medical School & Brigham and Women's Hospital and compare it with the actual mean survival. MethodologyWe conducted a retrospective observational study of patients who received a histopathological diagnosis of glioblastoma from the National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery "Manuel Velasco Suárez" between 2015 and 2021. We included 50 patients aged 20-83 years, with a tumor size of 15-79 mm, and who had died 30 days after surgery. Patient survival was estimated using the online calculator developed at Harvard Medical School & Brigham and Women's Hospital. The estimated mean survival was then compared with the actual mean survival of the patient. A two-tailed equivalence test for paired samples was performed to conduct this comparison. A value of p < 0.05 was considered significant. ResultsThe mean age of the sample was 55.5 years (confidence interval (CI) 95%, 52.61-58.71). The mean tumor size in our sample was 49.12 mm (±14.9mm). We identified a difference between the mean estimated survival and the mean actual survival of -1.37 months (CI 95%; range of -3.7 to +0.9). After setting the inferior (IL) and superior limits (SL) at -3.8 and +3.8 months, respectively, we found that the difference between the mean estimated survival and the actual mean survival is within the equivalence interval (IL: p = 0.0453; SL: p = 0.0002). ConclusionsThe actual survival of patients diagnosed with glioblastoma at the National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery was equivalent to the estimated survival calculated by the online prediction calculator developed at Harvard Medical School & Brigham and Women's Hospital. This study validates a practical, cost-effective, and accessible tool for predicting patient survival, contributing to significant support for medical and personal decision-making for glioblastoma management.