Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data

Abstract

A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for Smaller proportions cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership.The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data.Forecasting shows the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.

Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour

“…Parkin et al (2008) change their mode based on the actual observed weather conditions. There are however some limitations and disadvantages with stated preference surveys which are briefly discussed later.…”

“…Most of the analysis conducted on the topic falls in one of two categories. Some research is conducted at a very aggregate level and does not include detailed enough weather condition and trip specific characteristics (Dill and Carr 2003, Winters et al 2007, Parkin et al 2008, Berkim et al 2006. Others are very location specific, and while they contain very detailed weather data, they fail to capture the influence of socioeconomic characteristics of trip makers and characteristics of other alternative modes (Brandenburg et al n.a., Thomas et al 2009, Nankervis 1999, Cools et al 2010, Bergstrom and Magnusson 2003, Aultman-Hall et al 2009).…”

“…Occasionally some indicators for weather conditions or climate are incorporated in active transportation behaviour and mode choice studies such as those conducted by Dill & Carr (2003), Winters et al (2007), and Parkin et al (2008), amongst others. Depending on the nature of the study the level of detail of such indicators range from average annual temperatures and total annual amount of rainfall to detailed micro scale temperature, wind, humidity and precipitation conditions.…”

Exploring temporal fluctuations of daily cycling demand on Dutch cycle paths: the influence of weather on cycling

“…Baltes (1996) and Dill and Carr (2003), in the UK, e.g. Parkin et al (2008) and Waldman (1977), and in the Netherlands, e.g. Rietveld and Daniel (2004).…”

Assessing the Bicycle Network in St. Louis: A PlaceBased User-Centered Approach

“…Using predetermined criteria, each segment of the network is given an LTS rating from 1 to 4, resulting in a map that shows which The value of such infrastructure for increasing cycling is mixed. While many studies have found a positive correlation between levels of bicycle infrastructure and bicycle commuting [15][16][17] others have found little correlation [18][19][20][21]. What is certain is that many cyclists prefer routes with bicycle facilities [22][23][24][25][26][27][28] and bicycle infrastructure encourages non-cyclists to try cycling [14].…”