Estimation of the Projections of the Incidence Rates, Mortality and Prevalence Due to Common Cancer Site in Isfahan, Iran

Abstract

Background: Accurate statistics on the cancer burden are essential, both for purposes of research and for setting priorities in healthcare management. So that in vast countries with partial registration coverage, such as Iran, local data are more useful. We here estimated the incidence, prevalence and mortality time trend of four major cancer site, lung, stomach, breast and prostate, over the period 2001-2010 and provided short-range projections to 2015 in Isfahan. Materials and Methods: Estimates were derived by applying the mortality-incidence analysis method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic degenerative disease, starting from knowledge of mortality and relative survival information. Results: Age adjusted incidence, mortality and prevalence rates in Isfahan exhibited a clear upward trend for all four sites during the period 2001-2015, with marked increasees in prostate and breast predicted for the future. Difference in incidence trends between males and females might be attributable to the difference in risk factors specific to certain cancer sites, with smoking being the main risk factor. Conclusions: In this study, males and females displayed an increasing pattern for incidence and mortality rate over the entire study period until 2015. This information can be used as basis for planning healthcare management and allocating recourses in public health.

Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality Rate of Gastrointestinal Cancer in Isfahan, Iran: Application of the MIAMOD Method

“…This similar trend by sex was seen overall in Switzerland but unlike the present study the incremental patterns are in the slightest steep (Joliat et al, 2015). In the studies conducted in western countries Inghelmann et al, 2007;Budroni et al, 2013;Foschi et al, 2013;Rashid et al, 2013;, only gastric cancer (the leading cancer in Iran) and relatively female colorectal patterns show a declining manner while in the present study the stomach cancer was found to have a 33% incidence and 37% mortality of digestive cancers and as previously estimated it has a strong upward trend (Moradpour and Fatemi, 2013).…”

Overview of Cancer Registration Research in the Asian Pacific from 2008-2013

“…I The five leading primary sites in males were liver, stomach, lung, esophagus, and colon/rectum; whereas in females Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, Vol 14, 2013 4463 DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2013.14.8.4461 Overview of Cancer Registration Research in the Asian Pacific from 2008 they were liver, cervix, stomach, esophagus and breast . In Isfahan, lung, stomach, breast and prostate all increased over the period 2001(Moradpour and Fatemi, 2013. This confirmed earlier findings for increase with most frequent cancers being gastrointestinal in men and breast in women (Mokarian et al, 2011).…”

Prostate Cancer Incidence in Turkey: An Epidemiological Study

“…In Hong Kong, an increasing trend in prostate cancer morbidity was reported with significant annual percent changes in 1995-2008 period (Xie et al, 2012). In Isfahan Iran, increasing trend in prostate cancer incidence (AAIRs from 5 in 2001 to 71.7 per 100 000 in 2015) was projected using mortality data (Moradpour F 2013). An increasing trend also was reported from 26 in 1999-2004 to 42 per 100 000 in 2005-2010 was reported in a rural area of North Western Greece (Grivas et al, 2012).…”