Estimation of Worst-Class Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surge, and Its Return Period -Case Study for Ise Bay-

Shibutani, Yoko; Nakajo, Sota; Mori, Nobuhito; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime

doi:10.2208/kaigan.71.i_1513

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…However, most researchers verified the numerical models not by correcting calculation errors but by adjusting values of physical parameters to obtain SSH close to the observed one. For example, Shibutani et al (2015) verified the numerical model by hindcasting SSH at Ise Bay, Japan, during the typhoon Vera (5915) event. In their study, they adjusted the value of reduction factors for wind speed at 10 m relative to the typhoon's movement and gradient wind speed.…”

Section: Hindcast Of Storm Surgementioning

confidence: 70%

“…Nakajo et al, 2013) and worst case approaches based on extreme scenarios (e.g. Shibutani et al, 2015). But, there is no quantitative consensus on projections of typhoon intensity in the litera- Here we performed simple sensitivity tests to select an arbitrary number for central pressure drops to reflect the impact of climate change.…”

Section: Evaluation Of the Effect Of The Bias Correction On Projectiomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many researchers have validated numerical models by adjusting the values of the physical parameters in the model to obtain simulated SSH values close to the observed values for a particular typhoon at a particular location/site (e.g. Shibutani et al, 2015;Nakajo et al, 2015). However, it is not generalized for other locations, events and different model configurations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity

Yang

Kim

Mori

et al. 2017

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:In this study, we propose a new approach for model validation that can be applied to the projection of possible future storm surge heights (SSHs) on the regional scale. First, this study conducts a series of SSHs for the southeastern coast of the Korean Peninsula (KP) by six typhoons that produced SSHs over 1.0 m since 1979 and identifies the bias between simulated and observed SSHs. Next, formulas for the bias correction using a geographic parameter, in particular the coastline complexity factors, are drawn and validated. Finally, the effect of the proposed bias correction on projection of future SSHs is examined by performing simple tests to consider only central pressure drops to reflect the impact of climate change. It can be seen that the bias correction method considering the coastline complexity can improve the model's accuracy by 14% to 23% and prevent potential overestimation by up to 20% of the maximum SSHs considering climate change effect on the southeastern coast of the KP.

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Section: Hindcast Of Storm Surgementioning

confidence: 70%

Section: Evaluation Of the Effect Of The Bias Correction On Projectiomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity

Yang

Kim

Mori

et al. 2017

Hydrological Research Letters

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“…Table 3 presents the conditions used in storm surge modeling, and Fig. 3 shows the domains used in the modeling, which are as similar to those in Shibutani et al [2015].…”

Section: Storm Surge Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yasuda et al [2014] estimated future storm surges by using the 5-km atmospheric model and reported shortened storm surge return periods. Yoshino et al [2014] estimated future changes in the characteristics of possible maximum strength typhoons at Ise Bay, and Shibutani et al [2015] discussed changes in the track of Typhoon Vera (1959) caused by possible maximum storm surges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SST Ensemble Experiment-Based Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Storm Surge Caused by Pseudo-Global Warming: Case Study of Typhoon Vera in 1959

Ninomiya

Mori

Takemi

et al. 2017

Coastal Engineering Journal

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200 words) To evaluate future changes in storm surge caused by global warming, dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting model was conducted for Typhoon Vera under present-and future-climate conditions and storm surge simulation using the Coupled Model of Surge, Wave and Tide. The present-climate experiment entailed dynamical downscaling using data from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis project as the initial and boundary conditions, and the future-climate experiments entailed downscaling considering future changes simulated through sea-surface temperature ensemble experiments using the Meteorological Research Institute Atmosphere General Circulation model. The characteristics of the downscaled typhoon agreed well with the Best Track, and the future changes in the typhoon characteristics were as follows: intensification of the central pressure, delayed decline in the high-latitude area, and westward track migration. Present-climate storm surge simulation executed using these downscaling results after correcting for the track error agreed with the observed surge, but the storm surges under future-climate conditions were underestimated because of differences in the typhoon track and surface roughness. Storm surge simulations were conducted using an empirical typhoon model; the results suggest a storm surge of 26 cm (average of the ensemble)at Nagoya Port, which is located in the innermost region of Ise Bay. 3

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Investigation of Characteristics of Maximum Storm Surges in Japanese Coastal Regions Caused by Typhoon Jebi (2018) Based on Typhoon Track Ensemble Simulations

OTAKI

Fudeyasu

Kohno

et al. 2022

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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The maximum storm surges caused by Typhoon Jebi (2018) were examined using a storm surge model and using track ensemble simulations based on a meteorological model and a parametric tropical cyclone (TC) model. The storm surge at Osaka Port was estimated more accurately by the meteorological model than the parametric TC model. The differences between both models were due to a "wind setup effect", where the topography en-

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Estimation of Worst-Class Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surge, and Its Return Period -Case Study for Ise Bay-

Cited by 8 publications

References 2 publications

Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity

Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity

SST Ensemble Experiment-Based Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Storm Surge Caused by Pseudo-Global Warming: Case Study of Typhoon Vera in 1959

Investigation of Characteristics of Maximum Storm Surges in Japanese Coastal Regions Caused by Typhoon Jebi (2018) Based on Typhoon Track Ensemble Simulations

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