Estonian energy supply strategy assessment for 2035 and its vulnerability to climate driven shocks

Abstract

Estonia is a relatively small country with a limited supply of indigenous energy resources mainly consisting of oil shale, wood, and peat. Estonia is also the only country in Europe with a dominant electricity production by burning oil shale. Around 90% of the overall electric energy production in Estonia comes from the Narva Power Plants. This presents great challenges and problems due to massive emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as well as radiological impact on the environment. Therefore, the current energy supply strategy can be considered hazardous and an unpopular choice for future energy system planning. In this article, we analyze the current energy policy as well as inclusion of new strategies to produce electricity for Estonia for a target year of 2035. We use a computer model Model for Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) to provide optimization and aim in helping the policymakers in the Estonian decision making process. We also add a specific case in the MESSAGE model to examine the ability of the current electricity supply strategy to handle climate related shocks with a special focus on cold weather in two plausible cases; single cold winter and prolonged cold winter. Results indicate that unexpected demand shocks may cause serious losses in gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, the authors come to the conclusion that extra capacity is highly recommendable for a number of reasons. We also find that nuclear power becomes economically preferable to oil shale with a CO2 tax of €20/t. Yet moving toward nuclear or other low CO2 alternatives presents certain challenges. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 35: 469–478, 2016

Structural characterization of shale oil obtained by Soxhlet extraction

“…2,20 On the other hand, the atoms (O, N, and S) were often high and variable among commercial shale oil samples. 39 As indicated in Table 6, the percentages of C and H were comparable for both samples and within the known limits for commercial shale oil. 20 Compared to the oil obtained by thermal retorting, the H/C of oil solvent extraction was higher (1.88) and exceeded the average limit of commercial shale oil (1.5).…”

“…For commercial shale oil, the average contents of C and H are 77.45 and 9.7% respectively, while the H/C atomic ratio is 1.5 . On the other hand, the atoms (O, N, and S) were often high and variable among commercial shale oil samples . As indicated in Table , the percentages of C and H were comparable for both samples and within the known limits for commercial shale oil .…”

“…In fact, shale oil was analyzed by advanced analytical techniques and many heterocyclic compounds were detected including carboxylic acids, ketones, aldehydes, pyridine, quinoline, acridine, pyrrole, indole, and carbazole . In general, the following recommendations are proposed for conditioning shale oil prior to refining: (a) olefins should be handled during processing due to their tendency to polymerize and form gums, (b) although the level of aromatics was not high (20.9%), they should be treated due to their negative interference with kerosene and diesel fractions, and (c) removal of S compounds is necessary due to their negative interference with gasoline and diesel cuts in commercial refining.…”

“…19 In fact, shale oil was analyzed by advanced analytical techniques and many heterocyclic compounds were detected including carboxylic acids, ketones, aldehydes, pyridine, quinoline, acridine, pyrrole, indole, and carbazole. 2,20 In general, the following recommendations are proposed for conditioning shale oil prior to refining 2,20,21,39 :…”

Modeling the Baltic countries’ Green Transition and Desynchronization from the Russian Electricity Grid

“…Recurring themes in Baltic energy research include energy security assessments (e.g. [14,15]) as well as evaluating the prerequisites and impacts of the renewable transition (e.g. [3,16]).…”