Ethnicity and Violence During Democratic Transitions: Evidence from South Africa

Abstract

This paper shows that ethnic diversity within the disenfranchised majority is a strong correlate of the incidence of violence during democratization. We study the relationship between ethnicity and con ict in South Africa during the fall of apartheid. Migration ows following the implementation and repeal of apartheid segregation laws induce cross-sectional and time variation in the ethnic composition of districts. Using Census data from the years before and after democratization, we compare the evolution of con ict across districts experiencing differential changes in ethnic composition. We nd that ethnic polarization and inequality within the black majority correlate strongly and positively with the incidence of armed confrontations between black-dominated groups. Results suggest that during democratic transitions ethnic markers can become a salient technology to separate individuals into well-identi ed groups and mobilize them for political violence.

The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions

“…Although infeasible to undo most national borders, within-country splitting may change the equilibrium relationship between diversity and conflict. Amodio and Chiovelli (2017) also study equilibrium changes, showing that abrupt, migration-induced increases in local polarization exacerbate conflict in post-apartheid South Africa. Our effect sizes are smaller.…”

“…Standard errors are clustered by original district. Amodio and Chiovelli (2017). 17 This large difference may be due to the fact that changes in local diversity due to migration capture additional conflict-relevant group divisions besides ethnic ones, e.g., between native "sons of the soil" and immigrants (Fearon andLaitin 2011, Weiner 1978).…”

Ballots Instead of Bullets? The Effect of the Voting Rights Act on Political Violence

“…This reduces the cost of voting relative to political violence, resulting in a new way to settle on policies (Fergusson and Vargas, 2013). By contrast, enfranchisement potentially fuels violence should former elites resort to violence to compensate for their loss in de jure power (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2001;Larcinese, 2017;Robinson, 2006, 2008) or groups resort to old divides to reap the benefits of the reform (Amodio and Chiovelli, 2018).…”

Crime, Inequality and Subsidized Housing: Evidence from South Africa

“…Similarly, Bhorat et al (2017) study income-based inequality using a cross-sectional dataset (2011 census) and find a positive link between inequality and property crimes. Other studies have examined correlates of crime, such as education (Jonck et al, 2015), changes in ethnic composition around the time of democratization (Amodio and Chiovelli, 2018), the weather (Bruederle et al, 2017) and social capital in the former apartheid-time resettlement camps (Abel, 2019a).…”