Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars

Cederman, Lars‐Erik; Girardin, Luc; Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede

doi:10.1017/s0043887109000148

Cited by 204 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Ethnic transnational ties are a typical example. Consistently with the argument that ethnic wars produce strong emulation and demonstration effects (Sambanis 2001;Bakke 2013;Weidmann 2015), several papers find that contagion is stronger when ethnic groups are partitioned between a neighbour at war and the domestic country (Cederman, Girardin, and Gleditsch 2009;De Groot 2011;Cederman et al 2013;Bosker and de Ree 2014). The influx of refugees is another form of interaction that should facilitate diffusion.…”

Section: Interaction Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 71%

The spillover of war in time and space: exploring some open issues

Carmignani

Kler

2016

Applied Economics

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In spite of a voluminous empirical literature, the diffusion of civil war in time and space is still not fully understood and several issues remain open for debate. This article sheds new light on some of these issues. First, we assess the robustness of results to changes in the definition of neighbourhood (spatial dimension) and in the lag structure (temporal dimension). Second, we investigate the factors that determine the strength of civil war diffusion, focusing in particular on (i) the type of war (e.g. its intensity and scope), (ii) the quality of domestic polity, and (iii) interaction opportunities (e.g. ethnic ties and refugee flows). Third, we look at how the occurrence of war in a neighbouring country affects the duration (and not just the onset) of domestic civil war.

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Section: Interaction Opportunitiesmentioning

confidence: 71%

The spillover of war in time and space: exploring some open issues

Carmignani

Kler

2016

Applied Economics

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“…Recently, the rapid rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has raised similar concerns about the contagious spread of terrorism across the border of Syria and Iraq into Turkey, Jordan, and elsewhere. 3 While there has been a growing literature on the extent to which civil war, 4 ethno-nationalist conflict, 5 insurgency, 6 and state failure 7 are geographically contagious, there have been a limited number of studies of the different forms of contagion and the extent to which these forms are observed for terrorism. The extant literature on the geography of terrorism is modest and most of the studies that exist focus on the distribution and diffusion of terrorism in specific countries, 8 "hot spots" across countries within regions, 9 regions, 10 or the diffusion of specific terrorist tactics.…”

Section: The Contagious Diffusion Of World-wide Terrorism: Is It Lessmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Contagious Diffusion of Worldwide Terrorism: Is It Less Common Than We Might Think?

LaFree

Xie

Matanock

2017

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism

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Studies of the contagious spread of insurgency and conflict across national boundaries have generated a good deal of empirical research over time. While the contagious spread of terrorism has also been a policy concern, few empirical studies exist on the extent to which terrorism spreads contagiously. This paper uses methods developed by criminologists to study the spread of crime to examine the world-wide diffusion of terrorism from 1970 to 2013. We distinguish between contagious increases (based on shared borders) and non-contagious increases (where no borders are shared). We define the "domino effect" as a particular type of contagious diffusion where high levels of terrorism spread to an adjoining country but also remain high in the host country. Our analysis shows that both contagious and non-contagious diffusion has been rare over the past 43 years, non-contagious diffusion is more common than contagious, and when contagious diffusion occurs, it is very likely to occur according to the domino effect. THE CONTAGIOUS DIFFUSION OF WORLD-WIDE TERRORISM: IS IT LESS COMMON THAN WE MIGHT THINK?Researchers and policy makers have long been concerned with the possibility that terrorism and other forms of political conflict and violence may quickly spread from one country to another. Analogies are often drawn to infectious disease with the implication that once a major outbreak is under way in a particular country, if unchecked it may rapidly "infect" other regions and even countries, spiraling out of control as in an epidemic. While the domino theory was primarily about the contagious spread of communism rather than political violence, it assumed that this contagion would happen across countries that shared borders. Recently, the rapid rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has raised similar concerns about the contagious spread of terrorism across the border of Syria and Iraq into Turkey, Jordan, and elsewhere. In this paper, we draw on methods developed for studying the spatial diffusion of crime 12 to examine the world-wide diffusion of terrorism over more than four decades . We distinguish between contagious diffusion where high levels of terrorism spread to an adjoining country from a host country but remain at high levels in the host country (referred to here as expanded contagion) from contagious diffusion where high levels of terrorism spread to an adjoining country but do not remain high in the host country (displaced contagion). Note that expanded diffusion references the specific outcome commonly known as "the domino effect."Both of these types of diffusion differ from non-contagious diffusion whereby the tactic may spread to countries that do not share borders.Our analysis of annual terrorist attacks for all non-island countries of the world shows that terrorist attacks since 2010 are more concentrated at the national level than at any other time since our data begin in 1970. We also find that contagious diffusion (both expanded and displaced) has been uncommon over this time pe...

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“…5 Furthermore, political activists in one country can obtain sanctuary and support from their transnational kindred, affecting the balance of power and motivation within the country in question (Salehyan 2007, Cederman et al 2009). Thus, the external intervention and the level and kind of external assistance combined with the occurrence of similar rebellions in the region constitute significant causes of intra-state wars (Rwantabagu 2001).…”

Section: External Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Twenty Years After Dayton: Bosnia-Herzegovina (Still) Stable and Explosive

Kartsonaki

2016

Civil Wars

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This paper examines how fragile Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is and whether it is indeed in danger of collapsing, as significant amount of academic literature often claims. The research finds that BiH is not in an immediate danger of collapse. BiH remains peaceful, despite the numerous challenges it faces. However, it comprises an alarming amount of causes of conflict that have been mitigated because both international actors and local elites benefit from the current status quo. Thus, BiH finds itself in a peaceful stalemate, which is likely to continue until a structural change occurs that triggers the outbreak of violent conflict.

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Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars

Cited by 204 publications

References 69 publications

The spillover of war in time and space: exploring some open issues

The spillover of war in time and space: exploring some open issues

The Contagious Diffusion of Worldwide Terrorism: Is It Less Common Than We Might Think?

Twenty Years After Dayton: Bosnia-Herzegovina (Still) Stable and Explosive

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