Eucalypt Recruitment and Invasion Potential in Protected Areas of the Iberian Peninsula under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Abstract

Eucalyptus globulus Labill. stands have been expanding in protected areas (sites) of the Natura 2000 network in the Iberian Peninsula (Iberia). This expansion is mostly human-driven, but there is increasing evidence of plant recruitment and escape from cultivation areas. Therefore, it is important to assess the recruitment and invasion potential of sites and associated habitats and how future climate may change this potential. Here, we use SDMs to project current and future climatic suitability for E. globulus recruitment in Iberia and combine this suitability with local factors to rate the current recruitment potential of eucalypt stands. This potential is then extrapolated to neighbour areas in Natura 2000 sites to assess the invasion potential. The results show a wide recruitment range along coastal regions of western and northern Iberia (83,275 km2) and a northward contraction under climate change, similar to the trend projected for plantation suitability. Recruitment potential of any level was identified in 989 km2, while invasion potential was identified in 878 km2 across 176 Natura 2000 sites. Heathlands and riparian forests were associated with the largest recruitment and invasion potential areas. This study may help in preventing further negative impacts in protected areas and habitats already affected by E. globulus expansion.

Stakeholders' views on the global guidelines for the sustainable use of non‐native trees

“…agroforestry, alien species, forestry, invasion risk, online survey, ornamental trees, perceptions, stakeholder engagement, sustainability, tree invasions Iberian Peninsula, also forms dense stands that modify water and fire regimes (Dehnen-Schmutz et al, 2010;Hurley et al, 2016;Touza et al, 2014) and impact conservation efforts in protected areas (Deus et al, 2022;Queirós et al, 2020). Despite these negative impacts, E. globulus was included much later into official lists of invasive non-native species in Spain or Portugal than other invasive species without economic benefits.…”

Evolution of land cover in the special area of conservation of Monchique (Southern Portugal): Have the objectives of the Natura 2000 network been achieved (1995–2018)?

“…Also, has 12 threatened species that are included in the Red List of the Vascular Flora of Mainland Portugal (Carapeto et al, 2020; Hagemann & Deil, 2008), and several priority habitats for conservation, such as the temperate Atlantic wet heaths of Erica ciliaris and Erica tetralix (4020*), arborescent thickets of Laurus nobilis (5230*), the sub‐steppes of grasses and annuals of Thero‐Brachypodietea (6220*) and the alluvial forests of Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior ( Alno‐Padion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae ) (91E0*). However, land cover is profoundly altered by areas of monoculture forestry (especially with exotic species) and heliophile bushes representing a serial vegetation stage which implies an added risk by increasing the probability of starting fires (Deus et al, 2022; Mitchell et al, 2009; Seng & Deil, 1999; Tedim et al, 2013).…”