Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

Abstract

This study quantifies how changes in temperature and precipitation would influence the intensity and duration of extreme fires across Europe. The analysis explores the impact of a range of climate change projections on fire events compared to a baseline of fire danger, using a 30-year ERA5 reanalysis. The results show that areas in southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring in any given year under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. If global temperatures reach the +2 °C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts. The increased probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, would put extra strain on Europe’s ability to cope in the forthcoming decades.