Europe’s Climate Target for 2050: An Assessment

Tol, Richard S.J.

doi:10.1007/s10272-021-1012-7

Cited by 20 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In the context of the necessity of energy diversification and the establishment of local sources, this could leverage value added and contribute to the better use of the waste generated in the agriculture, wood and food industries. Decarbonisation is a process covering different industries, and while electricity is seen as the easiest sector, it is harder for transposrt, heating, industry and agriculture (Tol, 2021). According to Tol, satisfying the targets of the Paris Agreement would cost between 0.5% and 10.5% of GDP in 2050, with a model average of about 3%.…”

Section: Bioeconomy Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benefitting from the Development of the Bioeconomy: the Case of Bulgaria

Kotseva–Tikova¹

2022

Regional Formation and Development Studies

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The bioeconomy is a concept predominantly addressing industries producing and processing biological products with the aim of making them contribute to the transformation of modern economies into more sustainable, green, circular and climate-neutral economies. The aim of the article is to study the benefits of the development of the bioeconomy in Bulgaria, seen as economic, security and climate change impacts. All of these require a balanced management of biomass application, especially for non-food purposes, in order to obtain positive impacts and avoid the degradation of the ecosystem. For these reasons, different approaches to the governance of the bioeconomy are adopted worldwide. Bioeconomic industries in Bulgaria are vulnerable to climate change, and need investment to adapt to it. The main bioindustries are agriculture and food processing with respect to value added and employment, as they are of low efficiency in comparison with EU results. These sectors show resilience in the case of health risks and need technological modernisation and efficiency improvement through new supply chains and approaches to waste management. Renewable energy generation was stable during Covid-19 lockdowns, and impacted positively the decrease in greenhouse emmissions. Along with the ecological benefits, RES increases energy diversification and contributes to national security.

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Section: Bioeconomy Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benefitting from the Development of the Bioeconomy: the Case of Bulgaria

Kotseva–Tikova¹

2022

Regional Formation and Development Studies

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“…The economics literature is inconvenient because optimal emission reduction is less stringent than political aspirations (Tol, 1999(Tol, , 2012(Tol, , ?, 2021. Never mind that the recommended carbon tax has been higher than the observed carbon price for 40 years (Nordhaus, 1982, Tol, 2018.…”

Section: Optimal Climate Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

The IPCC and the challenge of ex post policy evaluation}

Tol

2023

Preprint

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The IPCC started at a time when climate policy was an aspiration for the future. The research assessed in the early IPCC reports was necessarily about potential climate policies, always stylized and often optimized. The IPCC has continued on this path, even though there is now a considerable literature studying actual climate policy, in all its infuriating detail, warts and all. Four case studies suggest that the IPCC, in its current form, will not be able to successfully switch from ex ante to ex post policy evaluation. This transition is key as AR7 will most likely have to confront the failure to meet the 1.5K target. The four cases are as follows. (1) The scenarios first build and later endorsed by the IPCC all project a peaceful future with steady if not rapid economic growth everywhere, more closely resembling political manifestos than facts on the ground. (2) Successive IPCC reports have studiously avoided discussing the voluminous literature suggesting that political targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction are far from optimal, although a central part of that work was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2018. (3) IPCC AR5 found it impossible to acknowledge that the international climate policy negotiations from COP1 (Berlin) to COP19 (Warsaw) were bound to fail, just months before the radical overhaul at COP20 (Lima) proved that point. (4) IPCC AR6 by and large omitted the nascent literature on ex post climate policy evaluation. Together, these cases suggest that the IPCC finds self-criticism difficult and is too close to policy makers to criticize past and current policy mistakes. One solution would be to move control over the IPCC to the national authorities on research and higher education. JEL codes: D04, H43, H87, Q54

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“…Some of the works concerns the rationality and costs of full decarbonisation of energy sectors (Hübler et al, 2013;Capros et al, 2012), also in Poland (Kiuila, 2018). Part of them provide a strong support for the implementation of decarbonisation scenario (Sofia et al, 2020), however, there are other surveys as well (Tol, 2021). The author reviews the targets set by the European Union, discusses the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction and concludes that the benefits of the European Union's climate policy do not outweigh its costs.…”

Section: An Overview Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Are EU environmental regulations consistent with the concept of internalisation of externalities – the case of Polish electricity sector

Kudełko¹

2022

EiS

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The article’s goal is to examine whether the existing EU environmental regulations implemented in the Polish electricity sector are consistent with the concept of internalisation of external costs. The tool used in the research is the partial equilibrium model of the mid-term development of the Polish power sector. There are two scenarios. The first ‘base’ scenario assumes gradual decarbonisation of the Polish energy sector. In the ‘int’ scenario, the structure of energy production results from the full internalisation of external costs. The structural changes in the ‘base’ scenario are a significant challenge. All coal-based technologies are being drastically phased out and will be replaced by RES and nuclear technologies. The climate policy leading to a gradual reduction of CO2 emissions in Poland makes sense, assuming much higher external costs of CO2 emissions (€65/Mg CO2 ) than those assumed in this study.

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Europe’s Climate Target for 2050: An Assessment

Abstract: Decarbonisation is harder for transport, heating, industry and agriculture. That is, a doubling of the decarbonisation rate requires much more than a doubling of the policy effort. The low-hanging fruit has been picked.

Cited by 20 publications

References 38 publications

Benefitting from the Development of the Bioeconomy: the Case of Bulgaria

Benefitting from the Development of the Bioeconomy: the Case of Bulgaria

The IPCC and the challenge of ex post policy evaluation}

Are EU environmental regulations consistent with the concept of internalisation of externalities – the case of Polish electricity sector

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