Europe’s other debt crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions

Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Erb, Karl‐Heinz; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Hülber, Karl; Jaros̆ı́k, Vojtĕch; Krausmann, Fridolin; Kühn, Ingolf; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Hulme, Philip E.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1216303110

Cited by 115 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(70 reference statements)

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“…14). Land-use speeds are more comparable to these dispersal estimates, but place additional pressures through the effects of habitat transformation 21,22 (for example, from forest or rangelands to urban or agriculture), habitat fragmentation, by creating barriers to dispersal, and due to socioeconomic pressures on species distributions 23 that can result in an endangered status 18,22 . Species-specific rates of response are likely to promote the reshuffling of species into new ecosystems 24 and may increase the likelihood of extirpation or extinction.…”

Section: Temporal Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Species with limited dispersal ability or endemic distributions may be particularly sensitive to high climate 17 and landuse speeds, as well as other anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity 18 . Climate speeds are high relative to observed rates of range shifts for plants and animals 3,13 , during the late twentieth century (6 km decade −1 ; ref.…”

Section: Temporal Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combined speeds of climate and land-use change of the conterminous US until 2050

et al. 2014

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High rates of climate and land-use changes threaten biodiversity and ecosystem function 1,2 , creating a need for integrated assessments and planning at regional to global scales. We develop a new approach to measure multivariate estimates of climate and land-use change that builds on recently developed measures of climate velocity 3-6 , and apply it to assess the combined speeds of climate and land use for the conterminous US from 2001 to 2051. The combined speeds of climate and land-use change are highest in a broad north-to-south swath in the central US and in parts of the intermountain west. Climate speeds are roughly an order of magnitude higher than land-use speeds in most regions, but land-use speed is particularly high in the Appalachians and north-central forests. Joint speeds are low across much of the intermountain west. Our results highlight areas expected to be most vulnerable to changes in biodiversity and ecosystem function due to the individual or combined e ects of climate and land-use change. The integration of climate and land-use scenarios suggests di erent conservation prioritization strategies from climate velocities and species alone 7 .Most quantitative global-change assessments of rates of change have focused on future climate alone 3,5,6,8,9 , without considering other factors. Conversely, most future land-use scenarios do not consider climate change 10-12 and emphasize total habitat losses rather than rates of change. As the distributions of species and diversity are affected by multiple environmental factors, multivariate approaches to assess the rates of climate or land-use change are needed. Using a new joint measure of exposure to climate and land-use changes that combines elements of velocitybased 3,5,6 and analogue-based methods 6,8,9 (Methods), here we measure the combined speeds of climate and land-use change for the conterminous US based on multiple land-use and climate scenarios.Our approach is based on the univariate velocity of change, measured as the ratio of temporal anomalies to spatial gradient 3 (Methods); for example, Temporal anomaliesSpatial gradient =to translate estimates of temporal rates of changes into estimates of spatial velocities. This metric provides a standardized measure of exposure 2 of species to spatially rapid rates of change. Climatic velocities determine the rates at which a given species needs to move to stay within a given range of climate. Land-use velocities index the rapidity of land-cover conversion, which can lead to habitat loss, spatial isolation and the emergence of dispersal barriers.We build on this to develop a new estimate of the exposure of ecosystems to rapid change across multiple dimensions of climate and land use (Methods), providing an overarching index that is independent of the natural history attributes of individual species. This measure combines the principle of individual velocity-based metrics 3,5,6 with the multivariate assessments enabled by analoguebased methods 6,8,9 . As with univariate velocity measurements, multivar...

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Section: Temporal Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Temporal Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined speeds of climate and land-use change of the conterminous US until 2050

et al. 2014

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“…Supporting recovery without intervention and repairing disturbed ecosystems are crucial to regain lost biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services provided to society8910. Assessments of anthropogenic disturbances have shown global losses11 in biodiversity, whereas the disturbance is still active and time lags exist in its response1213 (Fig. 1).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance and the recovery debt

et al. 2017

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Ecosystem recovery from anthropogenic disturbances, either without human intervention or assisted by ecological restoration, is increasingly occurring worldwide. As ecosystems progress through recovery, it is important to estimate any resulting deficit in biodiversity and functions. Here we use data from 3,035 sampling plots worldwide, to quantify the interim reduction of biodiversity and functions occurring during the recovery process (that is, the ‘recovery debt'). Compared with reference levels, recovering ecosystems run annual deficits of 46–51% for organism abundance, 27–33% for species diversity, 32–42% for carbon cycling and 31–41% for nitrogen cycling. Our results are consistent across biomes but not across degrading factors. Our results suggest that recovering and restored ecosystems have less abundance, diversity and cycling of carbon and nitrogen than ‘undisturbed' ecosystems, and that even if complete recovery is reached, an interim recovery debt will accumulate. Under such circumstances, increasing the quantity of less-functional ecosystems through ecological restoration and offsetting are inadequate alternatives to ecosystem protection.

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“…In some European regions these figures are far higher; in Flanders, for example, 19 out of 67 resident butterfly species (28 %) went extinct since the start of the twentieth century, whilst 25 species (37 %) are currently threatened (Maes et al 2013). Such high proportions can be explained by cumulative effects of environmental pressures due to a long history of economic development (Dullinger et al 2013). European-wide declines are especially worrisome since Lepidoptera provide many vital and economically important services within terrestrial ecosystems, such as nutrient cycling, prey resources and pollination.…”

Section: European Lepidoptera: Numbers and Trendsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Rewilding: Pitfalls and Opportunities for Moths and Butterflies

Merckx

2015

Rewilding European Landscapes

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Small organisms provide the bulk of biodiversity. Here, we look at rewilding from their perspective. As an umbrella group for other terrestrial invertebrates, we focus on the diverse group of Lepidoptera. More specifically, we set out to explore their response to farmland abandonment. So far, studies have warned against farmland abandonment, which is for instance listed as one of the key threats to European butterfly diversity. Here, partly based on a case study within the Peneda mountain range, we argue (i) that the majority of Lepidoptera is to a greater or lesser extent forest-dependent, (ii) that effects on species composition should be considered at regional rather than smaller scales, and (iii) that habitat resource heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales is key. As such, we believe that rewilding does offer opportunities to Lepidoptera. However, we recommend rewilding not to be equalled to a hands-off approach, but rather to a goal-driven conservation management approach. It should monitor, and where necessary intervene to provide habitat heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales, in order to cater for the whole gradient of sedentary to mobile species. Given that sufficient levels of habitat heterogeneity are maintained, Lepidoptera are one of probably many taxa that are likely to benefit from rewilding processes on European marginal farmland. The resulting improved species composition will help achieve European species conservation targets. It may also lead to more viable populations of moths, butterflies and other invertebrates, which will foster more resilient food-webs and increased ecosystem functioning.

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Europe’s other debt crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions

Cited by 115 publications

References 50 publications

Combined speeds of climate and land-use change of the conterminous US until 2050

Combined speeds of climate and land-use change of the conterminous US until 2050

Anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance and the recovery debt

Rewilding: Pitfalls and Opportunities for Moths and Butterflies

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