European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Vautard, Robert; Szopa, Sophie; Rao, Shilpa; Schucht, Simone; Klimont, Zbigniew; Menut, Laurent; Clain, Gaëlle; Meleux, F.; Curci, Gabriele; Rouïl, Laurence

doi:10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013

Cited by 98 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…It is recognized that climate change may also have some influence on future PM 2.5 concentrations in the UK; however the focus is here on UK precursor emission sensitivity and many studies have concluded that on the 2030 timescale air pollutant concentrations will be much more strongly influenced by changes in precursor emissions than by changes in climate (e.g. Langner et al, 2012;Coleman et al, 2013;Colette et al, 2013).…”

Section: Vieno Et Al: the Sensitivities Of Emissions Reductions Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

et al. 2016

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Abstract. The reduction of ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a key objective for air pollution control policies in the UK and elsewhere. Long-term exposure to PM 2.5 has been identified as a major contributor to adverse human health effects in epidemiological studies and underpins ambient PM 2.5 legislation. As a range of emission sources and atmospheric chemistry transport processes contribute to PM 2.5 concentrations, atmospheric chemistry transport models are an essential tool to assess emissions control effectiveness. The EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to investigate the impact of reductions in UK anthropogenic emissions of primary PM 2.5 , NH 3 , NO x , SO x or non-methane VOC on surface concentrations of PM 2.5 in the UK for a recent year (2010) and for a future current legislation emission (CLE) scenario (2030). In general, the sensitivity to UK mitigation is rather small. A 30 % reduction in UK emissions of any one of the above components yields (for the 2010 simulation) a maximum reduction in PM 2.5 in any given location of ∼ 0.6 µg m −3 (equivalent to ∼ 6 % of the modelled PM 2.5 ). On average across the UK, the sensitivity of PM 2.5 concentrations to a 30 % reduction in UK emissions of individual contributing components, for both the 2010 and 2030 CLE baselines, increases in the order NMVOC, NO x , SO x , NH 3 and primary PM 2.5 ; however there are strong spatial differences in the PM 2.5 sensitivities across the UK. Consequently, the sensitivity of PM 2.5 to individual component emissions reductions varies between area and population weighting. Reductions in NH 3 have the greatest effect on area-weighted PM 2.5 . A full UK population weighting places greater emphasis on reductions of primary PM 2.5 emissions, which is simulated to be the most effective single-component control on PM 2.5 for the 2030 scenario. An important conclusion is that weighting corresponding to the average exposure indicator metric (using data from the 45 model grids containing a monitor whose measurements are used to calculate the UK AEI) further increases the emphasis on the effectiveness of primary PM 2.5 emissions reductions (and of NO x emissions reductions) relative to the effectiveness of NH 3 emissions reductions. Reductions in primary PM 2.5 have the largest impact on the AEI in both 2010 and the 2030 CLE scenario. The summation of the modelled reductions to the UK PM 2.5 AEI from 30 % reductions in UK emissions of primary PM 2.5 , NH 3 , SO x , NO x and VOC totals 1.17 and 0.82 µg m −3 for the 2010 and 2030 CLE simulations, respectively (not accounting for non-linearity).

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Section: Vieno Et Al: the Sensitivities Of Emissions Reductions Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

et al. 2016

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“…Existing investigations all agree on a larger impact of air quality policies (Tagaris et al, 2007;Hedegaard et al, 2013;Colette et al, 2013), supporting the efficiency of currently planned mitigation strategies, despite external penalties brought about by climate change and long-range transport.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone-climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

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“…The impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated O 3 concentrations has been primarily linked to less dilution of emissions when using a finer resolution (Valari and Menut, 2008;Tie et al, 2010;Colette et al, 2013;Stock et al, 2014;Schaap et al, 2015). Investigating the impact of increasing model horizontal resolution from 48 to 6 km on O 3 concentrations in Paris, Valari and Menut (2008) found modelled surface O 3 to be more sensitive to the resolution of input emissions than to meteorology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Markakis et al, 2015;Schaap et al, 2015;Yu et al, 2016;Neal et al, 2017). Although the same model processes are represented at different model resolutions, simulated pollutant concentrations can vary due to differences in (i) the resolution of emissions, which may have a nonlinear effect on the chemical formation of pollutants, and (ii) the resolution of the driving meteorology (Valari and Menut, 2008;Tie et al, 2010;Arunachalam et al, 2011;Colette et al, 2013;Markakis et al, 2015;Schaap et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

et al. 2018

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Abstract. We examine the impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated concentrations of surface ozone (O 3 ) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM 2.5 ), and the associated health impacts over Europe, using the HadGEM3-UKCA chemistry-climate model to simulate pollutant concentrations at a coarse (∼ 140 km) and a finer (∼ 50 km) resolution. The attributable fraction (AF) of total mortality due to long-term exposure to warm season daily maximum 8 h running mean (MDA8) O 3 and annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations is then calculated for each European country using pollutant concentrations simulated at each resolution. Our results highlight a seasonal variation in simulated O 3 and PM 2.5 differences between the two model resolutions in Europe. Compared to the finer resolution results, simulated European O 3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are higher on average in winter and spring (∼ 10 and ∼ 6 %, respectively). In contrast, simulated O 3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are lower in summer and autumn (∼ −1 and ∼ −4 %, respectively). These differences may be partly explained by differences in nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) concentrations simulated at the two resolutions. Compared to O 3 , we find the opposite seasonality in simulated PM 2.5 differences between the two resolutions. In winter and spring, simulated PM 2.5 concentrations are lower at the coarse compared to the finer resolution (∼ −8 and ∼ −6 %, respectively) but higher in summer and autumn (∼ 29 and ∼ 8 %, respectively). Simulated PM 2.5 values are also mostly related to differences in convective rainfall between the two resolutions for all seasons. These differences between the two resolutions exhibit clear spatial patterns for both pollutants that vary by season, and exert a strong influence on country to country variations in estimated AF for the two resolutions. Warm season MDA8 O 3 levels are higher in most of southern Europe, but lower in areas of northern and eastern Europe when simulated at the coarse resolution compared to the finer resolution. Annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations are higher across most of northern and eastern Europe but lower over parts of southwest Europe at the coarse compared to the finer resolution. Across Europe, differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted MDA8 O 3 range between −0.9 and +2.6 % (largest positive differences in southern Europe), while differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to populationweighted annual mean PM 2.5 range from −4.7 to +2.8 % (largest positive differences in eastern Europe) of the total mortality. Therefore this study, with its unique focus on Europe, demonstrates that health impact assessments calculated using modelled pollutant concentrations, are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ∼ ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.

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European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

Cited by 98 publications

References 69 publications

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

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European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

Cited by 98 publications

References 69 publications

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

Contact Info

Product

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The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>

The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM<sub>2.5</sub>