European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios

West Nile Virus Infection in Occupational Settings—A Systematic Review

“…Particularly, Southern and Central European countries, such as Romania and Italy, have been predominantly affected by WNV outbreaks, with human infections linked to sporadic cases only until the mid-1990s. All these evidences suggest a prospective increase in WNV incidence in the coming years [ 46 ].…”

“…Among various eco-climatic drivers, climatic anomalies, specifically the temperatures during summer and spring over the last decade, emerged as the predominant factor influencing the recurrent outbreaks of WNV in Europe [ 46 ]. These findings hold significance, especially in light of the expected changes in climate that anticipate a rise in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods, or droughts [ 47 ].…”

“…These findings hold significance, especially in light of the expected changes in climate that anticipate a rise in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods, or droughts [ 47 ]. These events have the potential not only to enhance the interaction between vectors and hosts, but also between vectors and viruses, favoring the transmission of WNV to humans and leading to an increased occurrence of outbreaks [ 46 ]. It is therefore important to consider, in an assessment of work-related risks, how occupational exposure may be affected by the epidemiological context in which the worker is working.…”

West Nile virus eco-epidemiology and climate change

“…Based on the machine learning model by Farooq et al [128], an accelerating trend for increased WNV risk is reported with the largest increases in risk in northern and western Europe but with absolute risk remaining highest in southern, central, and eastern Europe. Recently, the authors also applied this model to different combined shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), standing for a range of future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios [159]. This analysis indicated that the land areas at WNV risk in Europe could increase from currently (baseline 2000-20) 15% to 23-30% with an additional population at risk of 161-244 million mid 21 st century, depending on the considered scenario, and with most notable increases in Western Europe.…”

“…Projections of WNV risk, though agreeing on an overall trend of increasing risk, are still scarce and highly uncertain. They are limited in spatial scale and often extrapolate from associations derived from past/current conditions [62, 147,148,[159][160][161] and/or confine to projecting only one aspect of climate-driven impacts on WNV, e.g., by focusing on temperature and/or vector-pathogen traits [62, 129,161]. Thus, while these approaches are sophisticated and highly valuable, they could be complemented by projecting indicators that consider more drivers and by integrating process-based relationships in these models wherever feasible.…”