European Surface Pressure Patterns for Months with Outstanding Climatic Anomalies During the Sixteenth Century

Jacobeit, Jucundus; Wanner, Heinz; Koslowski, Gerhard; Gudd, Martin

doi:10.1007/978-94-015-9259-8_7

Cited by 12 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Interestingly, extremely warm spring and warm summer temperatures also characterized the warmest year prior to 1900, 1540. Glaser et al (1999) and Jacobeit et al (1999) report extremely dry conditions and persistent high-pressure conditions stretching from Central Europe to Poland from March to August, although there is no independent evidence. The absolute coldest year for the last 500 years in the Alpine region was 1740.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500

et al. 2005

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High-resolution temperature and precipitation variations and their seasonal extremes since 1500 are presented for the European Alps (43.25-48.25°N and 4.25-16.25°E). The spatial resolution of the gridded reconstruction is given by 0.5°× 0.5°and monthly (seasonal) grids are reconstructed back to 1659 (1500-1658) Running correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the Alpine temperature and precipitation reconstructions demonstrate the importance of this mode in explaining Alpine winter climate over the last centuries. Winter NAOI correlates positively with Alpine temperatures and negatively with precipitation. These correlations, however, are temporally unstable. We conclude that the Alps are situated in a band of varying influence of the NAO, and that other atmospheric circulation modes controled Alpine temperature and precipitation variability through the recent past.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500

et al. 2005

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“…In comparison to the subjectively (Jacobeit et al 1999) and objectively (Luterbacher et al 2000 reconstructed SLP fields of single anomalously cold winters for the pre-1760 period our analogs indicate a similar distribution and location of the main pressure patterns and bear resemblance to the calculated average composite (not shown, Koenig 2007). It points to the fact that major anomalous years unequivocally exist independently of the approaches applied.…”

Section: Composite Analysis Of Anomalous Cold Casesmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Earlier studies relating circulation to the sixteenth century temperature anomalies used subjectively derived monthly or seasonal mean SLP patterns for outstanding warm and cold winters in Europe (Jacobeit et al 1999). Subsequently, analyses were based on earlier objective SLP reconstructions back to 1780 (Jones et al 1999), including studies on both long-term variability of circulation and climate (Beck et al 2001) as well as investigations on SLP patterns associated with Central European temperature anomalies (Jacobeit et al 1998).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

et al. 2010

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We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January-April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760-2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations . This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better assess documentary data in a quantitative way.

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“…Such maps have been developed for the Late Maunder Minimum period (1675-1704) by Wanner et al (1994Wanner et al ( , 1995. Similar to the reconstructions by Lamb (1987), they are subject to the disadvantage that they cannot be tested statistically since the subjective maps are representing prevalent conditions rather than real monthly means (Jacobeit et al, 1999); prevalent characteristics, however, disregarding intermediate deviations, might be smoothed out if integrated into strictly mean conditions as in the objective grids. Further, subjective maps might suffer from some overestimation since descriptive informations often tend to emphasize anomalies.…”

Section: Reorientation Towards a Synoptic Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Attempts to compare circulation patterns in the 16th century with the 20th century analogues for selected cold and warm winters and summers have been made by Jacobeit et al (1999). Statistically improved mean monthly SLP maps for the Late Maunder Minimum period (1675-1715) were later reconstructed by Luterbacher et al (2000).…”

Section: Reorientation Towards a Synoptic Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art

et al. 2005

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Abstract. This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the "Medieval Warm Period" and the "Little Ice Age", synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.

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European Surface Pressure Patterns for Months with Outstanding Climatic Anomalies During the Sixteenth Century

Cited by 12 publications

References 8 publications

Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500

Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500

Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art

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