Eurovisions: An Exploration and Explanation of Public Preferences for Future EU Scenarios

Abstract

Public opinion on the EU has received growing attention in the last decades, with an ever-increasing number of studies examining various aspects of it. Surprisingly, most studies focus on attitudes towards the past and present of the EU, yet we know very little about public attitudes towards the future of the EU. This study helps to fill this research gap by examining attitudes towards the EU's long-term future using a novel approach. We developed eight concrete future EU scenarios based on an inductive analysis of qualitative survey data. Subsequently, respondents (in an independent survey) ranked their top three scenarios according to individual preferences. Using multidimensional unfolding, we show that these preferences form three clusters ordered along a more versus less EU dimension. In a second step, we used multinomial logistic regression to examine not only who supports which scenario (socio-demographics) but also which EU attitudes lead to which future preferences. The analyses identify distinct characteristics and attitudes that drive people's preference for a given scenario. Overall, we find that factors such as occupational levels or left-right attitudes are strong determinants of preferences for the future of the EU, and that specific EU support (performance and utilitarian evaluations) is more important than diffuse EU support (identity and affect).

One union, different futures? Public preferences for the EU's future and their explanations in 10 EU countries

“…Citizens are thus able to operate with more complex EU attitude questions than the simple pro-/anti-EU measures commonly employed in surveys (cf. Goldberg et al, 2021). Moreover, binary survey items might lead to important misinterpretations.…”

“…Our previous findings show that citizens do hold well-founded opinions about the EU's future – in contrast to being indifferent – without these preferences being drawn to the extremes (Goldberg et al, 2021). Yet, this previous study was conducted only among the Dutch public and in the direct aftermath of Brexit, and therefore focused mainly on scenarios reflecting less integration.…”

“…In a recent study, we examine future EU preferences in the Netherlands (Goldberg et al, 2021). The study's approach borrows from methods such as information-and-choice questionnaires or deliberative polling (e.g.…”

“…We crucially expand on our previous approach (Goldberg et al, 2021) – developed to map degrees of Euroscepticism in the aftermath of Brexit – by refining the measure to create a symmetry between pro- and anti-integration scenarios. Not only does this do justice to the differentiation that exists between several ‘more Europe’ scenarios, but it also allows us to assess whether explanations for such scenarios differ from those of ‘less Europe’ scenarios.…”

“…Not only does this do justice to the differentiation that exists between several ‘more Europe’ scenarios, but it also allows us to assess whether explanations for such scenarios differ from those of ‘less Europe’ scenarios. Furthermore, while the previously used scenarios were partly tailored to the Netherlands (Goldberg et al, 2021), the refined scenarios presented here are applicable to study preferences in a comparative setup, which we do across 10 EU member states. We then explain the uncovered cross-national variation by a country's viability of exiting the EU based on a member state's institutional quality and economic conditions (De Vries, 2018).…”