Evaluación de dos Modelos de Reducción de Escala en la Generación de Escenarios de Cambio Climático en el Valle de Mexicali en México

Abstract

Autor a quien debe ser dirigida la correspondencia. ResumenSe evaluaron dos modelos de reducción de escala en la generación de escenarios de cambio climático en el Valle de Mexicali en México. Las técnicas comparadas son un Generador Estocástico de Tiempo Meteorológico (LARS-WG) y un método dinámico-estadístico (SDSM). Cada técnica se evaluó por su habilidad para reproducir algunas características estadísticas del clima observado en el período . Se elaboraron escenarios de cambio climático de temperatura y precipitación para los horizontes temporales 2020 y 2050. El LARS WG y el SDSM son técnicas sencillas que mostraron habilidades diferentes en la simulación de momentos estadísticos del clima observado, siendo ambos más eficientes para simular la temperatura que la precipitación. Para uno de los escenarios considerados se encontró diferencias de 0.1°C y 0.2°C para temperatura máxima y temperatura mínima y del 40.4% al 76.7% para precipitación. Palabras clave: reducción de escala, cambio climático, valle de Mexicali, LARS-WG, SDSM AbstractTwo downscaling models in the generation of climate change scenarios in the Mexicali valley in México were evaluated. The evaluated techniques were the stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG) and the dynamical-statistical model (SDSM). Each technique was evaluated for its ability to reproduce some statistical characteristics of the observed climate during the period 1961-1990. Climate change scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the period 2020 to 2050 were considered. LARS WG and SDSM are simple techniques that showed different abilities in simulating statistical moments of the observed climate, but both were more efficient for simulating temperature than precipitation. For one of evaluated scenarios differences of 0.1°C and 0.2°C for maximum and minimum temperature and 40.4% to 76.7% for precipitation.

Climate change projections of temperature and precipitation in Chile based on statistical downscaling

“…Additionally, the uncertainty is associated with the capacity of the GCM to simulate future climates; in other words, even if the GCM adequately simulates the current climate, it may not be as reliable for future climate projections. To reduce this uncertainty, more than one GCM is generally used (Cabré 2011), which is why six GCMs were used in the present study. We acknowledge that the use of a limited number of models might not provide a representative sample of the entire uncertainty range; thus, a larger ensemble could help to determine whether the projected changes are significant in ligh of model uncertainty (e.g., analyzing signal-to-noise ratios).…”

“…Single GCMs can adequately simulate current climate, but they may not be as reliable in projecting future climate. It is recommended to use more than one GCM, in order to obtain more accurate results (Cabré 2011) and fully sample different uncertainty sources (Knutti et al 2010). For these reasons, fifty models from CMIP5 (5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project, Taylor et al 2012) were firstly considered for this study (more details are given in Online Resource 1) and a subset of 6 GCMs (CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM1-M; Table 2) was selected based on the data availability of the chosen predictor variables (see Sect.…”

“…General circulation models (GCMs) are the most reliable tools to assess climate evolution under different anthropogenic forcings such as greenhouse gas emissions, and thus provide an estimation of possible future climates based on socio-economic and demographic factors corresponding to different emissions scenarios (Cabré 2011). GCMs are based on physical principles that numerically describe the climate system and can reproduce the observed characteristics of the current climate and past climate changes (Solomon et al 2007).…”

Las Partículas Respirables PM10 y su Composición Química en la Zona Urbana y Rural de Mexicali, Baja California en México

“…Se caracteriza por poseer un clima de tipo seco (B) y subtipo muy seco semicálido, con lluvias de invierno cuya frecuencia es menor a 36% (Rodríguez, 2002) con un promedio anual de lluvia de 75 mm (García et al, 2007), y una temperatura media anual de 21.4°C (Camargo y García, 2012), con máximas de 50°C en los meses de verano y cercanas a los 0°C en los meses de invierno (García et al, 2009), a una altura de 11 metros sobre el nivel del mar.…”