Evaluación de la Agresividad Climática y Concentración de Precipitaciones en la Cuenca Chancay-Lambayeque, Perú

Abstract

El comportamiento de las precipitaciones en el norte peruano se caracteriza por presentar lluvias con pocos meses lluviosos y muchos meses secos, por lo cual, surge la necesidad de abordar el estudio de la regularidad de las lluvias en esta zona del país con fines de pronóstico y prevención. El objetivo de la presente investigación fue evaluar la agresividad climática y concentración de precipitaciones empleando los índices de Fournier (IF), Fournier modificado (IFM), Fournier-Maule modificado (IFMM) y concentración de precipitaciones (ICP), estos parámetros permiten estimar la agresividad y concentración pluvial empleando precipitaciones mensuales y anuales con correlaciones respecto a la altitud y la precipitación media. Para este caso, se usaron registros pluviométricos de las estaciones meteorológicas de la cuenca Chancay-Lambayeque ubicada en el norte de Perú agrupadas mediante su vector regional. Los resultados indican una buena correlación entre la altitud y la precipitación media (R2 = 0,69), además el índice de agresividad climática que mejor desempeño muestra es el IFMM respecto a la altitud (R2 = 0,62) y precipitación media (R2 = 0,87), también el ICP indica buenas correlaciones en cuanto a la altitud (R2 = 0,69) y precipitación media (R2 = 0,62). En consecuencia, los hallazgos de la investigación manifiestan que el IFMM y ICP son los mejores estimadores para la cuenca estudiada ya que explican su agresividad climática variable y un comportamiento estacional según la concentración de precipitaciones.

Generation of Flows Applying a Simple Method of Flood Routing to Monthly Level in La Leche Basin, Peru

“…The results of flood routing for the La Leche basin, as shown in Figure 8, also indicate an increase in flow in an east to southwest direction as the return period progresses. This pattern is characteristic of the North Pacific basins of Peru, as reported by the investigations of Arriola et al (2021), Rollenbeck et al (2021) and Arriola et al (2023). Furthermore, this sequence of hydrological behavior has been influenced in recent years by extreme events due to the El Niño Phenomenon (Aguirre et al, 2019;Carrizales et al, 2022;Peña et al, 2023).…”

“…An interpolation method based on inverse distance weighting (IDW) was used for this analysis (Wang et al, 2022). This IDW technique is appropriate when there is a need to quantify values in areas where data are not available, as it correlates them with stations that do have complete values, much wider ranges of the meteorological variable under study can be obtained (Arriola et al, 2022;Tan et al, 2021;Vargas et al, 2021). In addition, the application of IDW in the La Leche basin is justified because it is a simple and accurate methodology for determining the required flows and also, additional information is not needed beyond that available at each hydrometric station.…”

“…The most notorious cases occur in the Puchaca climatic station (Figure 3c), Granja Militar Sasape climatic station (Figure 3d) and Tocmoche climatic station (Figure 3e). Another important aspect is the analysis of regional vector for the grouping of climatic stations according to the rainfall pattern (Arriola et al, 2022), since groups of stations can be conveniently formed in order to relate rainfall behavior in the La Leche basin. Therefore, this procedure is justified since, unlike other techniques, the regional vector has the particularity of considering a fictitious station, commonly called the vector index, which represents the average of all the other climatic stations.…”

Assessment of Parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution in Rainfall of the Peruvian North

“…In this sense, as mentioned by Guillén-Oviedo et al (2020) and Wang & Xuan (2022) as there is seasonality in the analysis of rainfall in a geographic area, the scale and shape parameters will assume a certain tendency to statistical dispersion with respect to extreme rainfall. Then, based on these results, the distribution maps of each GEVD parameter were generated with the adjustment to ordinary moments (Figure 3) and with the adjustment to linear moments (Figure 4), using the inverse distance weighted procedure, commonly known as IDW, that determines the values of each point without data, but at the same time, they are based on the records available in the climatic stations that do have values, being in this case the data of the location, scale, and shape parameters of the GEVD, as recommended by Adeola et al (2021) and Arriola et al (2022).…”

“…Other investigations such as those of Rollenbeck et al (2021), Rollenbeck et al (2022) and, Vavrus et al (2022 also analyzed the maximum rainfall in Peru, specifically in the northern zone of Peruvian Pacific, but without reaching the contrast of any extreme value distribution with their respective parameters and the quantification of extreme events for different return periods. Due to the above, there is a need to know the parameters of the GEVD in rainfall of Peru and with greater scope in the northern zone, since as indicated by SENAMHI (2017b) the Pacific 5 and Pacific 6 hydrological regions of Peruvian northwest, they are the ones that are the most prone to extreme storm events, which are mainly influenced by the altitude and seasonality of rainfall (Oruc, 2021;Arriola et al, 2022;Fernandez-Palomino et al, 2022).…”