Evaluating a Complex and Uncertain Future

Abstract

Social systems are emergent complex systems that are prone to uncertainty and change. Complexity and uncertainty increase the difficulty of evaluating for sustainability. However, backcasting from visions of sustainability using indicators that are positively correlated to principles of sustainability allows for congruence and complexity in achieving the vision. This article presents a model of how this can be done using Causal Layered Analysis and the Ecological Framework. Reiterating the evaluation and visioning process allows for indicators to accommodate change while remaining relevant to sustainability principles.

Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving ‘Vision 90:90:90’?

“…Snowden and Boone ( 2007 ) argue that this type of challenge is best approached through participatory management of the emergent, discrete patterns, regardless of whether the patterns are the result of disorganised interconnections or organised interdependencies. The purpose of managing these patterns is to either reduce or increase autopoietic tendencies, or to reinforce, or destabilise, existing autopoietic interdependencies so that the direction of change can be influenced (Becker 2011 ). This is reinforced by Coleman, Vallacher, Nowak and Bui-Wrzosinska ( 2007 :1459), who argue that ignoring the second-order ‘mechanisms that continually reinstate the [original condition] are likely to be futile, resulting only in short-term changes’.…”

Causal layered analysis as a policy methodology

“…In dealing with policy in the complex contextual domain, emerging patterns of change need to be recognised and monitored (Becker, 2011;Polkinghorne, 2004;Kurtz & Snowden, 2002). To achieve this it is essential that a multilevel approach is adopted.…”