Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility

Abstract

There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action.

The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate

“…16 When the health benefits of any increase in physical activity that results from modal shift are taken into account, the economic gains increase significantly. 17 These analyses complement a recent assessment from outside the health sector, which estimates that a robust response to climate change could yield over US$26 trillion and 65 million new low-carbon jobs by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual scenario. 18 Monitoring this transition from threat to opportunity and demonstrating the benefits of realising the Paris Agreement is precisely why the Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change was formed.…”

“…131 Additionally, the health benefits of increasing uptake of active forms of travel (walking and cycling) have been demonstrated through a large number of epidemiological and modelling analyses. 49,100,[132][133][134] Encouraging active travel, in particular cycling, has become increasingly central to transport planning, and there is growing evidence that bikeway infrastructure, if appropriately designed and implemented, can increase rates of cycling. 135 A modal shift in transport could also result in reductions in air pollution from tyre, brake and road surface wear in addition to exhaust related particulates.…”

Climate policy co-benefits: a review

“…Regarding physical activity, Jensen et al (2013) conclude that, among various strategies for achieving UK 2030 climate targets, increased active travel gives important, net positive, health co-benefits. Wolkinger et al (2018) analyse three mobility scenarios in three larger Austrian cities and show substantial GHG emission reductions along with increased physical activity and reduced annual direct and indirect health costs up to 10 million Euros (intangible costs uncounted). In a modelling study covering Auckland, New Zealand, over 40 years, physical separation on main roads and speed reduction on local streets yield co-benefits 10-25 times greater than costs of e.g.…”

“…Similarly, Von Stechow et al (2016) call for indicators that help to evaluate integrated policies that address multiple sustainable development goals while highlighting co-benefits. More specifically, Wolkinger et al (2018) call for researching combined health effects from both diet and mobility behavioural changes. Teng and Jotzo (2014) also see a need for integrating broader effects into economic models typically used in policy analysis (see also Rashidi et al, 2017).…”

The Role of Health in Households’ Balancing Act for Lifestyles Compatible with the Paris Agreement—Qualitative Results from Mannheim, Germany

“…In the mobility sector, they mainly arise from active travel compared to car or motorcycle use. Active travel describes modes of transport, including physical activity, such as walking, biking or using public transport leading to the prevention of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, some cancers and better mental health [20][21][22][23][24]. In the food sector, health co-benefits can arise from a shift to a more plant-based diet [25,26].…”