Evaluating Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change Under Climate Change on the Lake Marmara System

Gunacti, Mert Can; Gül, Gülay Onuşluel; Cetinkaya, Cem P.; Gül, Ali; Barbaros, Filiz

doi:10.1007/s11269-022-03317-8

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In order to simulate runoff in short-term as well as long-term settings, HEC-HMS uses traditional techniques [34,35]. Other studies have shown that HEC-HMS models streamflow using widely available data and catchment types [36][37][38][39]. Additionally, a significant number of scholars have used the HEC-HMS to simulate rainfall and runoff in order to study how changes in land use and the climate affect the runoff pattern.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on Rawal Dam Reservoir Operations and Hydrological Behavior

Hassan

Masood

Haider

et al. 2023

Water

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In order to assess the effects of climate change and land use change on Rawal Dam, a major supply of water for Rawalpindi and Islamabad, this study uses hydrological modeling at the watershed scale. The HEC-HMS model was used to simulate the hydrological response in the Rawal Dam catchment to historical precipitation. The calibrated model was then used to determine how changes in land use and climate had an impact on reservoir inflows. The model divided the Rawal Dam watershed into six sub-basins, each with unique features, and covered the entire reservoir’s catchment area using data from three climatic stations (Murree, Islamabad Zero Point and Rawal Dam). For the time spans of 2003–2005 and 2006–2007, the model was calibrated and verified, respectively. An excellent fit between the observed and predicted flows was provided by the model. The GCM (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) produced estimates of temperature and precipitation under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) after statistical downscaling with the CMhyd model. To evaluate potential effects of climate change and land use change on Rawal Dam, these projections, along with future circumstances for land use and land cover, were fed to the calibrated model. The analysis was carried out on a seasonal basis over the baseline period (1990–2015) and over future time horizon (2016–2100), which covers the present century. The findings point to a rise in precipitation for both SSPs, which is anticipated to result in an increase in inflows throughout the year. SSP2 projected a 15% increase in precipitation across the Rawal Dam catchment region until the end of the twenty-first century, while SSP5 forecasted a 17% increase. It was determined that higher flows are to be anticipated in the future. The calibrated model can also be utilized successfully for future hydrological impact assessments on the reservoir, it was discovered.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on Rawal Dam Reservoir Operations and Hydrological Behavior

Hassan

Masood

Haider

et al. 2023

Water

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“…A HEC-HMS model employs conventional methods to model runoff in both immediate and future circumstances [30,31]. According to other research, HEC-HMS models can simulate streamflow utilizing readily accessible facts and various catchment types [32][33][34][35]. To investigate whether changes in the environment and land use can affect the runoff trend, a number of researchers have also used HEC-HMS models for predicting runoff and precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Impacts of Climate and Land Cover Changes on the Hydrological Regime of a Complex Dam Catchment Area

Masood,

Haider,

Rashid

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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In this study, hydrological modeling at the watershed level is used to assess the impacts of climate and land use changes on the catchment area of the Khanpur Dam, which is an important water source for Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The hydrological impact of past and anticipated precipitation in the Khanpur Dam watershed was forecast by using a HEC-HMS model. After calibration, the framework was employed to analyze the effects of changes in land cover and climate on the hydrological regime. The model used information from three climatic gauge stations (Murree, Islamabad Zero Point, and Khanpur Dam) to split the Khanpur Dam catchment area into five sub-basins that encompass the entire watershed region, each with distinctive characteristics. The model was evaluated and checked for 2016–2018 and 2019–2020, and it produced an excellent match with the actual and anticipated flows. After statistical downscaling with the CMhyd model, the most effective performing GCM (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) among the four GCMs was chosen and used to forecast projections of temperature and precipitation within two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5). The predictions and anticipated changes in land cover were incorporated into the calibrated HEC-HMS model to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and land cover change at the Khanpur Dam. The starting point era (1990–2015) and the projected period (2016–2100), which encompassed the basis in the present century, were analyzed annually. The results indicated a spike in precipitation for the two SSPs, which was predicted to boost inflows all year. Until the end of the twenty-first century, SSP2 predicted a 21 percent rise in precipitation in the Khanpur Dam catchment area, while SSP5 predicted a 28% rise in precipitation. Increased flows were found to be projected in the future. It was found that the calibrated model could also be used effectively for upcoming studies on hydrological effects on inflows of the Khanpur Dam basin.

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“…They play an important role in maintaining regional ecological and environmental security and achieving sustainable human development [1]. However, under the influence of natural changes and human activities, the ecosystem of lakes has undergone changes in the area, shape, water quality, etc., resulting in a series of problems such as lake drying up [2,3], water quality deterioration [4,5], and ecological degradation [6,7]. The main factors affecting the lakes include rainfall and evaporation [8], acid deposition and climate change [9], human activities during historical periods [10,11], as well as the intensity of development and extreme climate events [12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Centennial Lake Environmental Evolution Reflected by Diatoms in Yilong Lake, Yunnan Province, China

Huang

Shi

et al. 2023

Applied Sciences

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The 64 cm sediment diatoms, representing a timescale from 1938 to 2020 A.D., were analyzed to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Yilong Lake in Yunnan Province, China. Some main diatoms with important environmental indicating significance were selected through Principal Component Analysis (PCA). In addition, their ecological affinities indicated that the PCA sample scores 1 and 2, which were the main factors affecting the environmental change of Yilong Lake, corresponded to pH value and eutrophication, respectively. According to the pH value and the eutrophication data obtained from the PCA, the lake had successively gone through six major stages. Though high pH value and eutrophication had been the main characteristics for a long time, the quality of Yilong Lake was gradually improved through planned treatment in the last decades. The drying up of the lake under natural conditions resulted in an increase in pH values and high eutrophication. Meanwhile, the impact of human activities played a more important role in lake evolution: unreasonable human development in lake basins led to abnormal changes in pH values and eutrophication, and planned and targeted treatment could restore the natural state of the lake.

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Evaluating Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change Under Climate Change on the Lake Marmara System

Cited by 7 publications

References 31 publications

Investigating the Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on Rawal Dam Reservoir Operations and Hydrological Behavior

Investigating the Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on Rawal Dam Reservoir Operations and Hydrological Behavior

Quantifying the Impacts of Climate and Land Cover Changes on the Hydrological Regime of a Complex Dam Catchment Area

Centennial Lake Environmental Evolution Reflected by Diatoms in Yilong Lake, Yunnan Province, China

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