2023
DOI: 10.3233/faia230946
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Evaluating Methods for Setting a Prior Probability of Guilt

Ludi van Leeuwen,
Bart Verheij,
Rineke Verbrugge
et al.

Abstract: One way of reasoning with uncertainties in the context of law is to use probabilities. However, methods for reasoning about the probability of guilt in a court case requires us to specify a prior probability of guilt, which is the probability of guilt before any evidence is known. There is no accepted approach for specifying the prior probability of guilt but multiple solutions have been proposed. In this paper, we consider three approaches: a prior that is based on the population, a prior based on the number … Show more

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