Evaluating Prognosis of Gastrointestinal Metastatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: Constructing a Novel Prognostic Nomogram Based on NETPET Score and Metabolic Parameters from PET/CT Imaging

Abstract

Introduction: The goal of this study is to compare the prognostic performance of NETPET scores, based on gallium-68 DOTANOC (68Ga-DOTANOC) and fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) Positron Emission Tomography-Computed Tomography (PET-CT), and PET-CT metabolic parameters in metastatic gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors (GI-NET), while constructing and validating a nomogram derived from dual-scan PET-CT. Methods: In this retrospective study, G1–G3 GI-NET patients who underwent 68Ga-DOTANOC and 18F-FDG PET scans were enrolled and divided into training and internal validation cohorts. Three grading systems were constructed based on NETPET scores and standardized uptake value maximum (SUVmax). LASSO regression selected variables for a multivariable Cox model, and nomograms predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were created. The prognostic performance of these systems was assessed using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance index (C-index), and other methods. Nomogram evaluation involved calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and the aforementioned methods in both cohorts. Results: In this study, 223 patients (130 males; mean age ± SD: 52.6 ± 12 years) were divided into training (148) and internal validation (75) cohorts. Dual scans were classified based on NETPET scores (D1–D3). Single 68Ga-DOTANOC and 18F-FDG PET-CT scans were stratified into S1-S3 and F1-F3 based on SUVmax. The NETPET score-based grading system demonstrated the best OS and PFS prediction (C-index, 0.763 vs. 0.727 vs. 0.566). Nomograms for OS and PFS exhibited superior prognostic performance in both cohorts (all AUCs > 0.8). Conclusions: New classification based on NETPET score predicts patient OS/PFS best. PET-CT-based nomograms show accurate OS/PFS forecasts.